美元被动走强

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for the USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to be range - bound between 7.1 and 7.15. In the short run, the strengthening of the US dollar is mainly due to the relatively weaker fundamentals and policy expectations of other major economies, giving the dollar a passive upward lift. If the relative differences narrow, the CNY has the potential to strengthen periodically. By the end of the year, if the Fed starts a substantial interest - rate cut cycle and domestic demand continues to recover, the CNY exchange - rate center may moderately rise to around 7.0. Exchange - rate policies will focus on stabilizing expectations and the pace. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term fluctuations of the US dollar and the corresponding increase in the CNY's volatility when the US government shutdown ends and a large amount of data is released [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the CNY, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end [5]. - The policy counter - cyclical factor remains below 5%, and the 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamental and View 3.2.1 Macro - Economic Situation - US: There are differences in the pricing of interest - rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance increased to 905 billion on October 22, and the reserve balance of depository institutions decreased by 58.4 billion to 3.28 trillion. Fed Chairman Powell hinted in October that the Fed might stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. The US central bank cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction program on December 1. The September CPI increase was lower than expected, supporting future interest - rate cuts. The economic outlook was revised upward, with a slight increase in the October PMI, but the improvement in real - estate sales in September did not continue. The ADP employment data changed to weekly, and the private - sector employment in the US showed a slight recovery, indicating that the labor market was still cooling down [16][18][19]. - China: There is a structural differentiation in the economy. September's imports and exports exceeded expectations, but there is still significant pressure on fixed - asset investment. Consumption has been boosted by holiday spending in the short term, but high - frequency consumption data shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government has loosened its policy window, and the gap between the fundamentals and market sentiment has widened [20]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - US October PMI: The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7. New orders slightly rebounded to 49.4, production declined again to 48.2, employment contracted continuously at 46.0, and the payment price dropped to a record low for the year at 58.0, indicating weak demand, slow output, labor - force reduction, and easing cost pressure [22]. 3.2.3 Exchange - Rate Drivers - Tight USD Liquidity: The Fed's balance - sheet reduction has led to a near - zero RRP balance, reducing the excess US dollars in the market. The increase in the TGA balance has further drained liquidity. At the end of October, the SOFR jumped significantly, indicating tight short - term funds. Against the backdrop of liquidity contraction, risk appetite declined, and the demand for safe - haven assets pushed up the US dollar [28]. - Drivers for the USD to Break Above 100: The market lacks a clear direction, and momentum dominates. In the fourth quarter, there is insufficient data and policy guidance, and the upward movement of the US dollar is more driven by sentiment and positions. The upward movement of the US dollar in October mainly occurred during the transition period between the Asian - European trading sessions, with limited driving force during the US trading session. The weakening of the Japanese yen, British pound, and South Korean won has contributed more to the strength of the US dollar, which has a passive upward characteristic [31]. 3.3 Macro - Economic Scenario Analysis - There are important events such as the APEC meeting from October to November, the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs in November, the Politburo meeting and the FOMC meeting in December, and the Central Economic Work Conference. In 2026, there are events such as the expiration of the Fed's temporary governor's term in January, the government work report in February, and the National People's Congress in March. The inflation realization period, the turning point of the inventory cycle, the Fed's increased easing, and the restocking cycle are also important factors to consider. Risks include the US government shutdown, liquidity risks, and the impact of the de - stocking cycle and tariffs [37][38][39].