软商品日报：资本市场拖累大宗价格，棉花运行承压-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Sideways [1] - Cotton - Sideways [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation has driven a seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Meanwhile, unfavorable weather conditions in Inner Mongolia and typhoon - related impacts in Guangdong and Guangxi may affect sugar production, and further tracking and evaluation are needed [1][3]. - In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin posed a high risk of heat damage to cotton. However, the continuous decline in commercial cotton inventory and the upcoming peak season for cotton textile provide bottom - support for cotton prices. Although the growth conditions are generally good, there is a risk of price decline after the centralized listing of cotton, and the cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [1][3]. Directory Summaries Market Quotes - External Market Quotes: On November 6, 2025, the closing price of US sugar was 14.22, with a change of 0.71%; the closing price of US cotton was 64.48, with a change of - 0.91% [1][4]. - Spot Prices: As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,750 yuan, and that in Kunming was 5,660 yuan; the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 14,650 yuan, with a change of 0.34% [1][4]. - Price Spreads: For sugar, SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01 and other spreads showed significant changes; for cotton, CF01 - 05 had a change of 100.00% [4]. - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at 76.55 [4]. - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained at 1,781.0 on November 6, 2025 [4]. - Options: The implied volatility of SR601C5400 was 0.0758, and that of CF601C13600 was 0.0719 [4]. - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: As of November 6, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 7,422.0, with no change; the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,769.0, with a change of 0.62% [2][4] Supply and Demand - Sugar: The demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation has driven a seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin posed a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, providing bottom - support for cotton prices [1]. Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory startup time was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugar - cane producing areas caused sugar - cane lodging, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar - cane growth needs continuous attention [3]. - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was slightly lower than the same period last year, and there is a risk of price decline after centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]