Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Stocks are favored in the medium to long term, buy on dips; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Coke and coking coal are expected to trade sideways; rebar is recommended to buy on dips; glass is advised to sell call options [1][8][11] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high levels or trade short - term within a range; aluminum is advised to buy on dips; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are advised to trade within a range [1][13][21] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach [1][23][39] - Cotton Textile Industry: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations [1][40] - Agricultural and Animal Husbandry: Pigs and eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds; corn is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to adjust at a high level [1][44][57] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their respective fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, cost, and policy changes to analyze the market trends of different industries and recommends corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the medium to long term, it is optimistic, and investors are advised to buy on dips. Currently, it may trade sideways as the market enters a vacuum period after events and lacks a clear catalyst [6] - Treasury Bonds: They are expected to trade sideways. The bond market has priced in previous factors, and future trends depend on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions [6] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: It is expected to trade sideways. The coal market has a tight supply - demand situation and rising prices, with improved sentiment [8][9] - Rebar: It is recommended to buy on dips. The price is at a relatively low valuation, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened recently [9] - Glass: It is advised to sell call options. The supply - demand pattern is poor, with high inventory and weak demand, and the technical indicators are bearish [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It is expected to trade at a high level with fluctuations. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, but the short - term supply of electrolytic copper is stable, and high prices suppress downstream demand [13][14] - Aluminum: It is recommended to take a cautious approach. The production capacity and inventory of alumina and electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the demand is affected by the season and high prices [14] - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant, and the refined nickel market is in an oversupply situation [19] - Tin: It is advised to trade within a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak, but the price has support [20] - Silver and Gold: They are advised to trade within a range. Affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and economic data, they are in an adjustment phase in the short term but have support in the medium term [21][22] Energy Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export growth may not be sustainable [23][24] - Caustic Soda: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The price is under pressure from alumina inventory and production, and the cost is affected by chlorine [26][27] - Styrene: It is expected to trade weakly with fluctuations. The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is loose, and the overall market is weak [28] - Rubber: It is expected to trade sideways. The supply is affected by the production season, and the demand is weak, with high inventory [30] - Urea: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply decreases due to maintenance, and the demand increases from agriculture and compound fertilizers [31] - Methanol: It is expected to trade within a range. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [33][34] - Polyolefins: PE is expected to trade within a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly. The supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and the demand has seasonal characteristics [34][35] - Soda Ash: The 01 contract is advised to take a short - selling approach. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak, although the cost has increased [38][39] Cotton Textile Industry - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to trade sideways. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price is affected by the purchase price and trade negotiations [40] - PTA: It is expected to trade at a low level with fluctuations. The supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is affected by crude oil and fundamentals [40][41] Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The 01 contract may face resistance in rebounds, and the 03 and 05 contracts are expected to have a lower price center. The supply is large in the first half of next year, and the demand is in the off - season [44] - Eggs: The 12 - contract is advised to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade within a range. The supply is abundant in the short term, and the long - term supply pressure is still large [46] - Corn: The 01 contract is expected to build a bottom with fluctuations. The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the cost has support in the long term [47][49] - Soybean Meal: It is expected to rebound from a low level. The domestic supply and demand may tighten, and the price is affected by the US soybean market [50] - Oils: They are expected to adjust at a high level. The short - term price is under pressure, but there is support below. Different oil products have different performance characteristics [51][57]
期货市场交易指引2025年11月07日-20251107
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-07 01:14