铅锌日评：沪铅高位回落，沪锌或有回调-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, so the tight supply situation has improved. Lead prices are under significant upward pressure and may oscillate downward [1] - For zinc, considering the weak domestic end - market and the Fed's hawkish remarks on interest rate cuts, there is a certain suppression on the upside of zinc prices. The LME zinc back structure has weakened, and the overseas structural risk has decreased. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. In the medium - term, the mining end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which will support zinc prices. One can wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On November 7, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,225 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day; the closing price of the futures main contract was 17,430 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day; the Shanghai lead basis was - 205 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, down 5.82 dollars; the trading volume of the futures active contract was 44,172 lots, down 4.83%; the open interest was 62,498 lots, down 4.87%; the LME inventory was 205,500 tons; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,903 tons, up 0.92%; the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,019.50 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.63, down 0.26% [1] Fundamental Information - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not substantially affecting refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had maintenance are gradually resuming, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, increasing demand [1] News - After the northern region enters the centralized heating period, air pollution pressure increases. Some recycling enterprises in North China have updated their logistics fleets to "National VI" standard vehicles, believing that transportation controls will not substantially affect the recycling and sales of waste lead - acid batteries. On November 5, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 30.22 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,565 lots to 149,952 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Hold previous short positions [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On November 7, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the futures main contract was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day; the Shanghai zinc basis was - 245 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the Shanghai zinc ingot premium was - 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Tianjin zinc ingot premium was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong zinc ingot premium was - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 98.23 dollars/ton, down 40.55 dollars; the trading volume of the futures active contract was 100,028 lots, down 0.80%; the open interest was 113,005 lots, up 0.47%; the LME inventory was 34,100 tons; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 68,022 tons, down 0.59%; the LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 3,054.50 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.42, up 0.11% [1] Fundamental Information - Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 102.54 dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic mines have an advantage, and refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. In October, the domestic TC may still decline. On the supply side, refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1] News - Gold Resource disclosed its Q3 2025 output, with a zinc ore metal output of 784 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55%. The Q3 output was affected by the shortage of key mining equipment supply and the lack of production faces. New production faces were put into use at the end of Q3. On November 5, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 98.23 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 1,503 lots to 228,618 lots [1] Investment Strategy - Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]