能源化工日报-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. - For methanol, with rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, with the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, the price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry fundamentals show high supply, increasing imports, and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [29][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.70 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.37%, at 460.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil in related refined oil futures rose 1.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%, at 2728.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 8.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.24%, at 3269.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.20 million barrels to 421.17 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; SPR replenished 0.50 million barrels to 409.60 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 4.73 million barrels to 206.01 million barrels, a 2.24% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 111.55 million barrels, a 0.57% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.08 million barrels to 21.89 million barrels, a 0.39% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.28 million barrels to 41.70 million barrels, a 0.67% increase [2]. - Strategy Views: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - Market Quotes: The Taicang price decreased by 2, Inner Mongolia increased by 15, and the price in southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 16 yuan, at 2125 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 101 [3]. - Strategy Views: With rising domestic production and imports, and weakening demand, the pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand leads to high enterprise inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of further downward pressure on the market. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while that in Hubei increased by 10. Most regions remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 11 yuan, at 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 74. The 1 - 5 spread was - 1, at - 83 [4]. - Strategy Views: With the price at a low level, low volatility, and a lack of fundamental drivers, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, and the downside space is also restricted. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Rubber - Market Quotes: As of November 6, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, 0.21 percentage points higher than last week and 5.35 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.45%, 0.24 percentage points lower than last week and 4.37 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.056 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase, a 1.6% increase. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 658,000 tons, a 3% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,000 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The total spot inventory in the Qingdao area increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons. In terms of spot prices, Thai standard mixed rubber was 145,350 (+200) yuan, STR20 was reported at 18,200 (+20) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1805 (+20) dollars, butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 6850 (+100) yuan, and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 98,700 (+100) yuan [10][11]. - Strategy Views: The price has rebounded as expected. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades opportunistically and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC01 contract decreased by 8 yuan, at 4630 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (-20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (-2) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2400 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 870 (+70) yuan/ton, and ethylene was 740 (0) dollars/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 77.4%, a 3.1% increase; the ethylene method was 80.2%, a 1.4% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. The factory inventory was 338,000 tons (+4000), and the social inventory was 1.03 million tons (-5000) [11]. - Strategy Views: The fundamentals show a weak situation with high supply, weak demand, and poor export prospects. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to reverse the situation. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium term [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Quotes: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5330 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5398 yuan/ton, a 68 - yuan/ton decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan expansion. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton decrease; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6300 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan decrease; the basis was 50 yuan/ton, a 79 - yuan weakening. The BZN spread was 89.5 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease; the non - integrated EB device profit was - 497.7 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase; the EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan reduction. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu ports was 179,300 tons, a 13,700 - ton decrease. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.09%, a 0.68% decrease; the PS operating rate was 52.00%, a 1.80% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 62.24%, a 0.27% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 72.10%, a 0.70% decrease [15]. - Strategy Views: The prices of both have declined. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract was 6805 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 70 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan weakening. The upstream operating rate was 83.3%, a 0.73% increase. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a 74,200 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a 300 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 45%, a 0.37% decrease. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 81 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan expansion [18]. - Strategy Views: The futures price has fallen. The price may bottom out, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [18][19]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract was 6471 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, and the spot price was 6555 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decrease, with a basis of 84 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 78.55%, a 0.07% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a 4800 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a 15,000 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 64,600 tons, a 700 - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a 0.24% increase. The LL - PP spread was 334 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan expansion [21]. - Strategy Views: The futures price has declined. With high supply pressure and weak demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [21][22]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX01 contract increased by 170 yuan, at 6820 yuan, and PX CFR increased by 10 dollars, at 826 dollars. After conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, the basis was - 73 yuan (-92), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. In terms of devices, Wushi Petrochemical in China restarted, Fujia Dahua was restarting, overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG and Saudi Arabia's Satorp were under maintenance, and Taiwan's FCFC device was restarting. The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load [24]. - Strategy Views: Currently, the PX load remains high, but downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November, and it is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA01 contract increased by 88 yuan, at 4688 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton, at 4540 yuan, with a basis of - 80 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, a 1.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Yisheng Dahua's load was restored, Zhongtai restarted, Dushan Energy's old device and Ineos were under maintenance, and Weilian Chemical reduced its load. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. As of October 31, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.207 million tons, a 6000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 17 yuan to 114 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 214 yuan [26]. - Strategy Views: The supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there is a high expectation of inventory reduction in November. However, the processing fee expansion is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of processing fee repair [26][28]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG01 contract increased by 10 yuan, at 3924 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan, at 3972 yuan, with a basis of 74 yuan (-3), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan (+11). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, a 3.8% decrease, among which the synthetic gas method was 71.9%, an 11.5% decrease; the ethylene - based load was 72.7%, a 0.7% increase. In terms of synthetic gas devices, Yulin Chemical and Tianye reduced their loads, Sinochem and Yankuang were under maintenance, and Jianyuan and Tongliao Jinmei were restarting. In terms of petrochemicals, there were few device changes. The downstream load was 91.5%, a 0.2% decrease. In terms of devices, Jinqiao's 200,000 - ton slicing was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load increased by 2% to 88%, and the loom load decreased by 1% to 75%. The import arrival forecast was 189,000 tons, and the East China departure on November 5 was 17,000 tons. The port inventory was 562,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 837 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price