格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of precious metals, including gold and silver. It points out that there are fluctuations in the prices of COMEX gold and silver futures, as well as Shanghai gold and silver. The market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, the change of ETF holdings, and the performance of the US economic data. The short - term trend of gold and silver is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.8 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.06% to 915.24 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.11% to 11359 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - As of November 6, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. [1] - In October, global gold ETFs had five consecutive months of capital inflows, and the average daily trading volume reached a record high. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.6%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 29.4%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 54.2%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 17.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 28.2%. [1] Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, in line with market expectations. But Powell's hawkish speech reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut. [1] - The US government shutdown continued, breaking the historical record. On November 7, the US dollar index fell to 99.70. [1] - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding the expected increase of 30,000. The US ISM services PMI in October was 52.4, rebounding more than expected. [1] - The US NASDAQ index led the decline in overnight US stocks, the volatility of the financial market increased, and the night - session prices of Shanghai gold and silver both fell slightly. [1] Trading Strategy - After the short - term peaks of gold and silver were confirmed, last week COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce and then rebounded back above $4000. On Tuesday this week, it broke below 4000 again. In the short - term, it may fluctuate around 4000, and it is recommended to wait and see. [1]