HTSC·2025-11-07 01:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunlun Energy [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve dual growth in profitability and dividends, leading to a revaluation of its long-term value [3] - The company has outlined its core business operational trends and significant progress, including retail gas volume growth, LNG industry chain synergy, LPG sales, and crude oil performance [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Performance - Retail gas volume growth for the first nine months is expected to return to 5%, driven by high single-digit growth from industrial users [4] - The LNG receiving station is projected to operate at an annual load factor of 85%-90% [4] - LPG sales showed high single-digit growth in the first nine months, with a slight increase expected for the full year [4] - Crude oil production is anticipated to stabilize at 8 million barrels for the year [4] Margin and Cost Trends - The gross margin for the first half was 0.44 RMB per cubic meter, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.01 RMB, influenced by gas station integration and promotional strategies for industrial users [4] - A stable to slightly increasing gross margin is expected in the second half due to cost optimization in winter [4] - Long-term demand for gas is expected to remain robust, supported by the dual carbon goals and industry pricing mechanisms [4] Long-term Planning and Non-gas Business - The company has clarified its long-term focus on five strategies: innovation, green energy, market, capital, and low cost [5] - The company aims to become a leading comprehensive energy supplier in China, with a natural gas terminal market share expected to match upstream supply [5] - The Shandong 380,000 kW onshore wind power project is planned to be operational by Q3 2026 [5] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend is set at 0.166 RMB per share, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with a payout ratio of 45.5% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 estimated dividend yield of 4.8% [4] - The dividend policy for 2023-2025 is expected to be steadily implemented, with a more positive outlook for 2026-2028 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains the forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company at 6.15 billion, 6.49 billion, and 6.84 billion RMB for 2025-2027, respectively [6] - The target price is set at 8.58 HKD, based on an 11x PE for 2025E and an exchange rate of 0.91 for HKD to RMB [6]