英大证券晨会纪要-20251107

Core Views - The A-share market has shown resilience against external market fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 4000-point mark again, indicating a short-term recovery in market sentiment [2][11] - The report suggests that while the probability of maintaining the 4000-point level has increased, fluctuations are expected due to historical psychological pressure and a lack of strong catalysts in the short term [2][11] - Long-term positive forces remain, supported by macroeconomic policies and resilient corporate fundamentals, particularly from the third-quarter reports [3][12] Market Overview - On Thursday, the three major indices opened higher and the Shanghai Composite Index rose above 4000 points, with significant gains in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and semiconductors, while tourism and media sectors declined [5][6] - The total trading volume exceeded 20 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4007.76 points, up 0.97%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.73% [6][11] Sector Analysis - Chemicals: The chemical sector, particularly fertilizers and fluorochemicals, has seen significant gains, indicating a recovery phase after a cyclical downturn, supported by policy and demand growth [7][11] - Non-Ferrous Metals: The non-ferrous metals sector, especially aluminum, is experiencing new demand opportunities driven by the global data center construction boom, leading to a projected supply-demand gap [7][11] - Robotics: The robotics sector has shown substantial growth, with a notable increase in stock prices since early January. The sector is expected to benefit from strong internal growth and supportive government policies [8][11] - Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, driven by national policy support and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [9][10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities rather than getting overly concerned about index stability. Key investment themes include technology growth sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics, as well as high-dividend defensive sectors [3][12] - Caution is advised in the technology growth sector to avoid speculative stocks lacking performance support, while emphasizing the selection of companies with actual earnings [3][12]