沪锡日评：供需预期偏紧支撑锡价-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, along with the decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees, indicate a tight supply - demand outlook. However, the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season may cause the Shanghai tin price to remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Shanghai Tin Futures Data - On November 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai tin spot was 283,420, up 1,330 from the previous day; the trading volume was 46,812 lots, a decrease of 24,353 lots; the open interest was 303,802 lots, a decrease of 2,237 lots; and the inventory was 5,865 tons, a decrease of 94 tons [2]. - The SMM No. 1 tin average price was 282,800, up 1,500 from the previous day; the basis of Shanghai tin was - 620, up 170; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 280, up 370; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was - 230, down 130; the spread between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai tin was 10, up 20 [2]. 3.2 London Tin Futures Data - On November 6, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic session) was 35,760, up 15 from the previous day; the spread between the LME tin futures 0 - 3 months contract was 30, down 9.5; the spread between the LME tin futures 3 - 15 months contract was 187, up 10 [2]. - The global inventory of LME tin was 2,975 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the LME tin registered warrants were 2,840, unchanged; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 135, unchanged; the ratio of Shanghai - London tin prices was 7.93, up 0.03 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is slow, Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fees are decreasing, indicating a tight supply - demand outlook. The operating rate of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased (or remained flat) compared with last week [2]. - Demand side: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, and the high tin price has led to less procurement by downstream users on a need - to - buy basis [2]. - Inventory side: The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Close short positions at low prices, pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 290,000 - 300,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 for London tin [2].