原油：空单持有，或逐步考验前低

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, with an oil trend strength of -1, it implies a bearish stance on the oil market [8]. 2. Core View - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually test previous lows [1]. 3. Summary by Section Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - All six types of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light from Saudi, Nemba from Angola, etc., have negative arbitrage incentives, and their arbitrage windows are closed. Reasons include high freight, weak competitiveness, and insufficient coking profits [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties from the North Sea has an arbitrage incentive of $0.52/b, with its window open, supporting trans - Atlantic light oil trade. Arab Extra Light from Saudi almost reaches the break - even point but faces fierce competition in the US East market [3]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH and Eagle Ford from the US have negative arbitrage incentives due to high trans - Atlantic freight. Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, Saharan Blend from Algeria, and Bonny Light from Nigeria have positive incentives, with their windows open, serving as stable light oil sources for Europe [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend from Algeria, Azeri Light from Azerbaijan, and Bonny Light from Nigeria all have negative arbitrage incentives, facing strong competition from Russian oil (Urals) [6]. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri from Indonesia and Basrah Heavy from Iraq have negative arbitrage incentives. Napo from Ecuador and Mars from the US have positive incentives, with their windows open, being attractive heavy - oil sources for Chinese refineries [6][7]. Key Market News - There was a cross - fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the situation was quickly controlled. The Trump administration may cut flights. Iraq plans to offer over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil in 2026. Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a two - week low. India's Reliance Industries is trying to sell some Middle - East oil cargoes [9].