宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the agricultural products sector in commodity futures is that the short - term and medium - term trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are mainly in a state of shock or weak shock. The market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply, and demand [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - weak; Reference view: shock - weak [5]. - Core Logic: The adjusted tariff of US soybeans is still much higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, reducing the export competitiveness of US soybeans. Domestic traders are mainly focused on profit - taking and rolling purchases. The market is shifting from "policy - emotion - driven" to "fundamental - reality - driven". High domestic inventories and weak downstream demand limit price increases, and short - term high - level fluctuations intensify [5][6]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock - weak; Reference view: shock - weak [5][7]. - Core Logic: Before the release of important reports such as MPOB next week, market funds are risk - averse. The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory to 2.44 million tons at the end of October, a nearly 30% year - on - year increase, exerts pressure on the market. Although the total inventory of three major edible oils in China has decreased slightly, it remains at a relatively high level, indicating a loose supply pattern. The short - term palm oil futures price will continue to operate weakly [7].