中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bullish: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Manganese Silicon [1] - Bullish: Coke, Coking Coal [1] - Cautiously Bearish: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: Output and apparent demand decreased month-on-month, showing off-season characteristics of weak supply and demand. Inventory decreased month-on-month, with a decline weaker than the seasonal pattern. The fundamentals are generally balanced but weak. It is currently near the previous low, testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and output both declined, and inventory increased slightly against the season, indicating certain inventory pressure. The falling hot metal output weakens the demand support for raw materials. It runs in a medium-term range and may fluctuate after continuous declines in the short term [1][4]. - Iron Ore: This week, hot metal output decreased significantly month-on-month due to environmental controls in Tangshan and maintenance of some loss-making steel mills. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory. The arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly, and the static fundamentals are neutral to bearish. With the exhaustion of phased macro positive factors, the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1][6]. - Coke: The third round of price increases is gradually being implemented, and there are differences in the market regarding the fourth round. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in a loss state. The falling hot metal output, poor steel mill profits, and increased blast furnace maintenance are observed. However, the raw material inventory level is moderately low, and the short-term restocking enthusiasm is acceptable. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and it follows the coking coal price to run strongly [1][9]. - Coking Coal: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine开工率 has decreased again month-on-month. The uncertainty of the political turmoil in Mongolia remains. Currently, the coal mine inventory level is low, pre - sales orders are sufficient, and the overall shipment situation is still good. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains tight, and the price is expected to run strongly [1][12]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand has weakened marginally, and inventory has continued to increase but at a slower pace. The price of manganese ore at ports has slightly increased, and the short - term cost side provides some support for the price [1][16]. - Ferrosilicon: The开工率 in the production area continues to increase, downstream demand weakens marginally, and inventory continues to increase significantly compared to the previous period. Attention should be paid to the situation of re - warehousing after warrant cancellation. Although the short - term coal price is running strongly and provides some cost support, its own fundamentals have turned to a loose state, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - Price Information: Rebar 01 is at 3037 with a rise of 13; Hot-rolled Coil 01 is at 3256 with a rise of 3. There are also detailed price and spread data for different contracts and spot prices [2]. - Market Analysis: Rebar shows off - season characteristics of weak supply and demand, and hot-rolled coil has inventory pressure. Both are affected by the falling hot metal output [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Rebar tests the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels; hot-rolled coil runs in a medium - term range and may fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Hot metal output decreased due to environmental controls and mill maintenance. Steel mills are reducing inventory while ports are accumulating inventory, and the arrival of foreign ores has increased significantly. The static fundamentals are neutral to bearish [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish, as production cuts and increased supply put pressure on the ore price [7]. 3.3 Coke - Price and Data: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data [8]. - Market Analysis: The third - round price increase is being implemented, and there are differences in the fourth - round increase. Coke enterprises' profits are slightly improved but mostly in loss. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited [9]. - Operation Suggestion: Bullish, following the coking coal price to run strongly [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - Price and Data: There are detailed data on futures contracts, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and other data [11]. - Market Analysis: Supply is affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, and the uncertainty of Mongolia's political situation remains. The supply - demand pattern is tight [12]. - Operation Suggestion: Bullish, with the price expected to run strongly [13]. 3.5 Ferrous Alloys - Price Information: There are detailed price, spread, and weekly production and inventory data for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [15]. - Market Analysis: Manganese silicon supply has decreased slightly but is still high, and downstream demand has weakened. Ferrosilicon's开工率 has increased, and inventory has increased significantly [16]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish on manganese silicon due to short - term cost support; bearish on ferrosilicon as its fundamentals are loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [17].