新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-7）-20251107

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Black Industry: Iron ore - oscillating; Coal and coke - rebounding; Rebar and rolled steel - oscillating; Glass - oscillating; Soda ash - weakening [2] - Financial Industry: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 - oscillating; CSI 300 - oscillating; CSI 500 - rebounding; CSI 1000 - rebounding; 2 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 5 - year Treasury bond - oscillating; 10 - year Treasury bond - rising; Gold - high - level oscillating; Silver - high - level oscillating [2][4] - Light Industry: Logs - weakly oscillating; Pulp - bottom - consolidating; Offset paper - oscillating; Edible oils - range - bound; Meal products - oscillating; Beans - oscillating; Live pigs - strongly oscillating [5][6][7] - Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry: Rubber - oscillating; PX - on - the - sidelines; PTA - oscillating; MEG - weakening; PR - on - the - sidelines; PF - on - the - sidelines [9] 2. Core Views - Macro - level: The Fed's interest - rate cut is realized, Sino - US relations ease, and the 14th Five - Year Plan exceeds market expectations. The market is in short - term consolidation, with an upward mid - term trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [2][4] - Industry - level: Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the black industry, there is an oversupply situation in iron ore; in the coal and coke sector, fundamentals support price increases. In the financial industry, stock index futures show different trends, and the bond market is in a state of small - scale rebound [2][4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply reaches a multi - year high with a 59% month - on - month increase in the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports. Demand is weak, with real - estate new construction at the 2005 level. Port inventories continue to rise, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse [2] - Coal and coke: Overseas and domestic positive factors support prices. The low profit of steel mills and the uncertainty of negative feedback in the steel market make the raw - material end stronger than the finished - product end. Coke starts the third round of price increases [2] - Rebar and rolled steel: After the macro - level positive factors are realized, prices return to fundamentals. Low static valuation, weak demand, and the need for strict production cuts and anti - "involution" policies to stop the price decline [2] - Glass: The news of coal - to - gas conversion and production - line cold - repair in Shahe is fermenting. Real - estate completion decline drags down demand, and inventory increases. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the supply - demand surplus [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: Different stock indices show different trends. Some sectors have capital inflows or outflows. The market is expected to be upward in the mid - term, and long positions are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. The market shows a small - scale rebound, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds [4] Light Industry - Logs: Supply pressure increases with seasonal import growth. Demand is expected to weaken as the downstream enters the off - season. Port inventories are likely to continue to accumulate, and prices are expected to weakly oscillate [6] - Pulp: Cost support weakens, paper - mill inventory pressure is high, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to bottom - consolidate [6] - Edible oils: The US government shutdown causes a lack of data, and concerns about soybean exports rise. Palm oil production and inventory pressure suppress prices. Crude - oil price weakness affects the bio - fuel industry and drags down the edible - oil market. Domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to range - bound [6] - Meal products: China's tariff cut on US agricultural products improves short - term sentiment, but the follow - up price trend depends on actual procurement and export rhythm. Domestic supply increases, and demand is weak, with prices expected to oscillate [6][7] - Live pigs: Transaction weight slightly decreases. Settlement prices rise due to factors such as increased demand for large pigs, improved slaughter - enterprise orders, and enhanced secondary - fattening enthusiasm. Prices are expected to rise in the coming week [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Rubber: Different regions have different weather impacts on raw - material supply. Overall inventory is low, and demand shows signs of recovery. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX and PTA: PX has short - term supply increase and demand decrease, and PTA's cost - end support weakens. Both prices mainly follow oil - price fluctuations [9] - MEG: Supply is at a high level, demand is expected to decline in the future, and price is under pressure from inventory accumulation [9] - PR and PF: PR may adjust strongly due to cost factors, and PF is expected to have a narrow - range consolidation [9]