宁证期货今日早评-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The remaining period of this year for crude oil is under pressure, and it should be treated with a weakening trend [1]. - Gold may experience high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and the downward space is limited in the short - term [1]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are strengthening, and it is expected to have a short - term strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel prices may have a narrow - range fluctuation after a partial rebound in the short - term [3]. - Coking coal futures are running near the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the actual impact of safety supervision and anti - involution on supply should be focused on [4]. - There is a local rebound expectation for hog prices, but there is still downward pressure in the short - term [4]. - Soybean No. 1 will have a high - level oscillation in the short - term, and Soybean No. 2 will have a strengthening and oscillating trend [5]. - Palm oil will have a bottom adjustment in the short - term [6]. - Rubber should be treated with a weakening and oscillating trend [6]. - PTA should be traded in the short - term as its fundamentals lack significant driving forces [6]. - Treasury bond futures have increasing positive factors and a medium - term oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. - Silver will have a short - term oscillation and a long - term strengthening trend [7]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [9]. - PVC is expected to have a short - term oscillating trend [10]. Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price for Asia in December. The export volume of some crude oils in November is expected to be slightly lower than that in October. The market is worried about oversupply, and European and American futures prices have fallen [1]. Gold - There are large differences within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The decline of US stocks and the risk - aversion sentiment are positive for precious metals [1]. Lithium Carbonate - The market supply and demand are booming. The total market inventory has decreased, and the sentiment in the mid - stream has improved. The latest quotation of Australian mines has strengthened again [3]. Rebar - This week, the supply and demand in the steel market are both weak, and the inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Most steel mills are in losses and are expected to increase maintenance and production reduction [3]. Coking Coal - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal has no obvious change recently. The upward driving force comes from anti - involution and the improvement of Sino - US trade relations. The multi - empty game in the market has intensified [4]. Hog - Hog prices are stable and strong in the north and weakly stable in the south. There is a local rebound expectation under the supply - demand game [4]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean exports in October increased significantly year - on - year. The purchase price of domestic new - season soybeans has increased, but the downstream demand suppresses the price to some extent [5]. Palm Oil - The production of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 5 increased compared with the same period last month. There is an expectation of production reduction in November, and the domestic demand has been significantly boosted recently [6]. Rubber - The inventory has increased this week, and the overall raw material inventory is at a low level. The demand side lacks substantial positive factors, especially the decline of synthetic rubber prices [6]. PTA - The polyester start - up rate is stable. The domestic supply has increased, and the demand side is stable. The balance sheet shows a slight inventory accumulation [6]. Short - term Treasury Bond - The money market interest rates have mostly declined, and the central bank's open - market operations and short - term liquidity injection are positive for the bond market [7]. Silver - The US federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about the future monetary policy [7]. Methanol - The domestic methanol start - up is at a high level, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the port inventory has accumulated slightly [8]. Soda Ash - The production of soda ash has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up of float glass is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased [9]. PVC - The start - up of domestic PVC production enterprises has increased, and the production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory has increased [10].