格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20251107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The short - term price of bottle chips is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the main contract reference range of 5,650 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the PR2601 contract rose 50 yuan to 5,722 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips rose 40 yuan to 5,730 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips rose 20 yuan to 5,750 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 1,738 lots to 58,500 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 1,999 lots to 56,700 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 341,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,800 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 74.8%, a week - on - week increase of 1.49%. The production cost was 5,234 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 119 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.8091 million tons [1] - International oil prices fell due to the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories and market concerns about oversupply. NYMEX crude oil futures December contract fell 0.96 dollars/barrel to 59.60 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. ICE Brent crude oil futures January contract fell 0.92 dollars/barrel to 63.52 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43%. China's INE crude oil futures 2512 contract fell 3.1 yuan to 462.1 yuan/ton, and fell 4.4 yuan to 457.7 yuan/ton at night [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, in line with market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips changed little, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about future demand expectations. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared. The market is waiting for the details of the anti - involution policy to be finalized. The fundamentals may limit the upside space [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [1]