国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Lack of drivers, focus on short - term support [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans decline, slow regression of soybean - palm oil spread [2] - Soybean meal: Trade sentiment fluctuates, stay on the sidelines [2] - Soybean: Range - bound [2] - Corn: Short - term bullish [2] - Sugar: Weak operation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to external market impacts [2] - Eggs: In an adjustment phase [2] - Pigs: Inventory accumulation continues, wait for the release of spot contradictions [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the actions of oil mills [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's day - session closing price rose 1.65%, night - session fell 0.60%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.61%, night - session fell 0.12%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Argentina's oilseed workers reached a wage agreement with soybean processing enterprises, avoiding a strike [5][7]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean 2601's day - session rose 1.69%, night - session rose 0.19%; DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session rose 0.95%, night - session fell 0.39%. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had slight changes [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On November 6, CBOT soybeans fell due to limited Chinese demand. Citi expects China to resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans in the long run [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [12]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Corn's C2601 day - session rose 0.75%, night - session rose 0.09%; C2603 day - session rose 0.88%, night - session rose 0.14%. The price of Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while Guangdong Shekou's increased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: Raw sugar price is 14.19 cents/pound, up 0.08. Mainstream spot price is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 [19]. - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's September sugar production increased by 11% year - on - year, but exports decreased. China's September sugar imports were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons) [19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [22]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2601 day - session fell 0.07%, night - session fell 0.15%; CY2601 day - session rose 0.25%, night - session fell 0.03%. Spot prices of cotton in different regions had slight declines [24]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was dull, and ICE cotton futures fell due to events in the US [25]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg 2512 rose 1.93%, egg 2601 rose 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions were stable or had slight changes [30]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, up 100; Sichuan's is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's is 12,460 yuan/ton, down 100 [32]. - Market Information: In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [33]. - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is 0 [34]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: PK601 fell 0.21%, PK603 fell 0.33%. Spot prices of peanuts in different regions had declines or were stable [37]. - Spot Market Focus: In some peanut - producing areas, the supply was low, trading was inactive, and prices were stable or weak [38]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].