尿素日报：出口预期好转-20251107

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Urea spot low - price transactions improved after manufacturers lowered prices, but the sustainability is general. With new capacity coming online, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains loose. The fourth - quarter gas - based plant maintenance is expected to start in December. This week, production and sales are in a weak balance, and urea inventories in factories have slightly increased. The news that urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of 600,000 - ton export quotas has improved the year - end export outlook, which is expected to support the spot market. Keep an eye on spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [6][7][8] 2. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [16] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][23][26] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - The report provides information on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, and relevant price differences and export profits, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [25][29][32] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [42][43][44] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents upstream factory inventories, port inventories, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract positions, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [47][49][51]