国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series on November 7, 2025. These include high - level fluctuations for iron ore, coke, and coking coal; wide - range oscillations for rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese; and oscillatory fluctuations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 0.19%. The position was 537,495 lots, down 7,164 lots. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, with the basis narrowing [5]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures was 3,037 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.40%, and the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures was 3,256 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.22%. Spot prices in most regions showed small increases or remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [8]. - Industry News: On November 6, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed mixed trends. In late October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had different changes [9][10]. - Trend Strength: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, as well as related raw materials, showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all changed [12]. - Industry News: On November 6, there were price changes in raw materials such as semi - coke and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese market quotations and procurement prices [12][13][14]. - Trend Strength: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures was 1,290.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.7%, and the J2601 coke futures was 1,776.5 yuan/ton, up 23.5 yuan or 1.3%. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, while coke prices in some regions increased. The basis and spreads changed [15]. - Trend Strength: Both coke and coking coal have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations, with changes in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [18]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20].