国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: The government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2]. - Silver: Oscillate and rebound [2]. - Copper: Inventory increases, and prices oscillate [2]. - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2]. - Lead: Overseas inventory continues to decrease, supporting prices [2]. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillate with a bullish bias [2]. - Alumina: Run weakly [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: Smelting - end inventory accumulation suppresses, while mine - end uncertainties support [2]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices oscillate in a narrow range at low levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 917.80, with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 915.24, with a night - session increase of 0.06%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 25122510 decreased by 99,677 compared to the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 87,816 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed's December interest - rate cut is uncertain. This year's voting members are hesitant due to the government shutdown, and next year's voting members are more worried about inflation [4]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0 [6]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11,427, with a daily increase of 1.34%, and the night - session closing price was 11,359.00, with a night - session increase of 0.11%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 3,201 compared to the previous day [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 16,230 kilograms compared to the previous day [4]. - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is - 1 [6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 86,320, with a daily increase of 0.76%, and the night - session closing price was 85,690, with a night - session decrease of 0.73%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 72,044 compared to the previous day [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 1,332, and the inventory of London Copper increased by 500 [8]. - Macro and Industry News: The US October Challenger corporate lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. The Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,675, with a 0.11% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 809 [11]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 401 tons, and the inventory of LME Zinc increased by 100 tons [11]. - News: The Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear [11]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,430, with a 0.26% decrease. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 2,244 [15]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 199 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 3,100 tons [15]. - News: The US October Challenger corporate lay - offs reached a 20 - year high, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: Similar to gold and silver price and trading - volume data are provided, such as the closing price and trading - volume changes of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed's December interest - rate cut is uncertain, and the US October Challenger corporate lay - offs increased significantly [17][18]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,630, with a decrease of 235 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 14,424 [21]. - Inventory: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 607,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons [21]. - News: The AI revolution accelerates the lay - off wave, and Dalio warns about the US economic situation [22]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,750, a decrease of 280 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,590, an increase of 55 [23]. - News: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area, China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies [23][24]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [25].