尿素早评：情绪好转，反转存疑-20251107

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment for urea has improved, but a reversal may not be imminent based on supply - demand dynamics. The urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the strong supply and weak demand situation. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a near - five - year low. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, there is insufficient upward momentum due to high supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1644 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.67% from November 5 - UR05 closed at 1727 yuan/ton on November 6, up 12 yuan or 0.70% from November 5 - UR09 closed at 1750 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan or 0.63% from November 5 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 12 yuan to - 147 yuan/ton - The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 1 yuan to - 83 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1630 yuan/ton, the highest was 1653 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1628 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton. The持仓量 was 275142 hands [1] Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]