铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US government is in a shutdown, employment data is weak, and the market is sensitive to negatives, with potential increased volatility. In China, the A - share market has returned to 4000 points, and the bond market may maintain a strong - oscillating pattern. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3] - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment and waiting for more information. Copper is in a weak oscillation due to economic recession expectations. Aluminum shows a high - level oscillation with both bullish and bearish factors. Other commodities also have their own unique trends affected by supply, demand, and macro - economic conditions [4][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US government is shut down. In October, non - farm jobs decreased by 9100, corporate layoffs increased by 175% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.36%. The Fed is cautious about further rate cuts, and the market prices a 69% probability of a December rate cut. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%, and the US dollar index fell to 99.7 [2] - Domestic: The A - share market rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index back at 4000 points. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 was dominant in style. The bond market was affected by the stock market and regulations, and short - and long - term Treasury yields rose [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures fell 0.20% to $3984.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.37% to $47.85 per ounce. The prices are in a stage of adjustment, and short - term rebounds may have limited space [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract was in a weak oscillation, and LME copper oscillated around $10700 at night. US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,000, a 175% year - on - year increase, and the market has recession expectations for the US economy, which restricts copper prices. Tongling Nonferrous won a copper - gold - molybdenum exploration right for 3.204 billion yuan [6] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 21,665 yuan/ton, up 1.29%. LME aluminum closed at $2843/ton, down 0.09%. The market has both bullish and bearish factors, and aluminum prices are in a high - level oscillation [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2787 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The supply and demand are in surplus, but cost support may lead to price stabilization, and a rebound awaits news of corporate production cuts [11] 3.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21,095 yuan/ton, up 1.27 yuan/ton. The cost support is strong, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [12] 3.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated, and LME zinc had a narrow - range oscillation. The export window is open, and the market has both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in an oscillating price [13][14] 3.8 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated weakly. The inventory increased slightly, and in the short term, there is support, but in the long term, the supply pressure may lead to a price decline [16] 3.9 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract oscillated strongly during the day and then weakened at night. The price is in a high - level oscillation due to the game between bullish and bearish factors [17] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply decreased due to the dry season in the southwest, and the demand showed a mixed situation. The price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern [18][19] 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, and the spot price fell. The early复产 information was not confirmed, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation [20][21] 3.12 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated strongly. The US labor market weakness pushed up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, and the price may rise due to the adjustment of the US dollar index [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated strongly, and the glass main contract oscillated. The supply contraction may support price stabilization, and the price difference between the two varieties may converge [24][25] 3.14 Steel and Iron Products - Steel futures oscillated weakly, with a decline in production and apparent demand. Iron ore futures fell, with strong supply and weak demand [26][27] 3.15 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures continued to be strong. The third round of coke price increases was implemented, and the supply of coking coal is tight, with an expected strong - oscillating price [28][29] 3.16 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract rose. Argentina's sowing conditions are good, and the short - term trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be strongly oscillating [30][31] 3.17 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract rose. The market is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating [32]