中辉期货豆粕日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Lacks continuous bullish drivers. Brazilian rainfall is expected to be good in the next 15 days. The result of the China - US meeting shows that the issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved. It continued to trade in a narrow range at a high level yesterday. Due to the lack of bullish drivers, be cautious when chasing long positions. Pay attention to the planting weather of Brazilian soybeans [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: Be cautious when chasing long positions. High port inventories and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market. However, the unresolved China - Canada trade issue still supports far - month contracts, while near - month contracts are weak. Although rapeseed meal rose yesterday, the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - Palm Oil: Short - term decline. It has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand. It is expected to continue to build inventories in October and November in Malaysia. But import may be insufficient in December and January due to negative import margins, and prices rebounded at the end of the inventory - building hype in October [1]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term consolidation. There is a lack of bullish support in the US soybean oil market. Domestic soybean oil inventories are higher than the five - year average, with sufficient short - term supply. Although it rose yesterday, there is no strong bullish driver for now [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term stop - falling consolidation. Low oil mill operating rates, the mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market, and the consumption peak season have led to a stop - falling rebound. However, the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - Cotton: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, the Indian MSP policy provides some support. Domestically, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory has recovered, increasing spot pressure. Downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance to upward movement [1]. - Red Dates: Cautiously bearish. With large - scale harvest, the new - season output is becoming more certain. High old - season inventories and limited acceptance of new products by downstream may lead to weakening prices. Be cautious when short - selling and pay attention to the purchase price and progress [1]. - Live Pigs: Be vigilant against rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high as the supply was postponed to December by second - fattening in October. The demand is gradually stabilizing. It is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and be vigilant against the rebound risk of the 01 contract. Consider the 03 contract and potential reverse - spread opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price Data: The main contract's closing price was 3068 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3117.43 yuan/ton, up 25.14 yuan or 0.81% [2]. - Inventory Data: As of October 31, 2025, national port soybean inventories were 962.9 million tons, down 10.20 million tons from last week and up 288.44 million tons from last year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventories were 710.79 million tons, down 40.50 million tons or 5.39% from last week and up 160.05 million tons or 29.06% from last year. The soybean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, up 9.84 million tons or 9.33% from last week and up 16.89 million tons or 17.16% from last year [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Data: The main contract's closing price was 2549 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price remained unchanged at 2636.32 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Data: As of October 31, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventories were 0 million tons, down 0.6 million tons from last week. Rapeseed meal inventories were 0.71 million tons, unchanged from last week, and unexecuted contracts were 0.71 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last week [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory Data: As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 59.28 million tons, down 1.43 million tons or 2.36% from last week and up 8.74 million tons or 17.29% from last year [8]. - Production and Export Data: From October 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 5.19% - 26.54% depending on different sources [8]. Cotton - Price Data: The main contract's closing price was 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.03% [9]. - Inventory Data: The national cotton commercial inventory was 232.61 million tons, up 48 million tons from the previous value. The Xinjiang cotton commercial inventory was 183.9 million tons, up 48 million tons [9]. - Production Data: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. Domestically, the new cotton picking progress is 87.1%, the ginning volume exceeds 208 million tons, and the selling progress is 14.2% [10][11]. Red Dates - Price Data: The main contract's closing price was 9705 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [13]. - Inventory Data: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, up 193 tons from the previous value [13]. Live Pigs - Price Data: The main contract's closing price was 11940 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12030 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.50% [16]. - Inventory and Output Data: The national sample enterprise's live pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, up 5.61 million tons or 0.15% from the previous month. The monthly output was 1196.53 million tons, up 126.77 million tons or 11.85% [16].