国泰君安期货所长早读-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Geological Survey (USGS) released the "2025 Critical Minerals List" on November 6, adding 10 minerals, including boron, copper, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, silicon, silver, and uranium, increasing the total to 60. Minerals on the list will receive US government funding and project approval facilitation [8]. - The PTA market is again focusing on supply reduction due to anti - involution in the industry. The unilateral PTA price rose yesterday, with a medium - term upward trend. However, there is a clear future inventory accumulation pattern, and the space for positive spreads is limited [10]. - Different commodities have different trends, such as gold being affected by government shutdowns on liquidity, silver having an oscillating rebound, and copper having price oscillations due to increased inventory [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals Gold and Silver - Fundamentals: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 917.80 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 11427 with a daily increase of 1.34%. Trading volumes and positions also changed. Gold ETF holdings increased slightly, while silver ETF holdings decreased. The inventory of Shanghai silver decreased, and the inventory of Comex silver also decreased [16]. - Macro and Industry News: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut. The AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US, and the Bank of England has kept interest rates unchanged, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut [16][19]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Copper - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 86,320 with a daily increase of 0.76%. Copper inventory increased, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased. There were also changes in spot prices and spreads [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list. Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new copper smelter, and some mining companies in Indonesia and Canada had production - related news [20][21]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [21]. Zinc - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22675 with a daily increase of 0.11%. There were changes in trading volume, position, and various spreads and inventories [23]. - News: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut [23]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [23]. Lead - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17430 with a daily decrease of 0.26%. Overseas lead inventory decreased, which supported the price. There were also changes in trading volume, position, and various spreads and inventories [26]. - News: The US October challenger corporate layoff number reached a 20 - year high, and there are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut [26]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [26]. Tin - Fundamentals: Similar to gold and silver in terms of price, trading volume, position, and inventory data [28]. - Macro and Industry News: There are uncertainties about the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US [29]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 1 [30]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamentals: Aluminum showed an oscillatingly strong trend, alumina showed a weakly running trend, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. There were detailed data on prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventories for electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [32]. - Comprehensive News: The AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs in the US, and Dalio believes that the US is in a dangerous stage of the "big debt cycle" [33]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [33]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,750, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,590. There were changes in trading volume, position, and various prices and spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains [34]. - Macro and Industry News: An Indonesian mining area was taken over, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [34][35]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36]. Chemicals PTA - Market Situation: The market is again focusing on supply reduction due to anti - involution in the industry. The unilateral PTA price rose yesterday, with a medium - term upward trend. Polyester load is at a high level (91.5%), and PTA's short - term operating rate has decreased. The domestic PTA load has dropped to 76.4% (- 1.6%), and the inventory accumulation pressure in November has been relieved, with the full - month inventory accumulation within 100,000 tons. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the space for positive spreads is limited [10]. - PX and Processing Fees: PX supply is marginally tightened, and PTA processing fees above 300 should be shorted on rallies [10]. Other Chemicals - Different chemicals such as MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. have different trends, such as MEG having a large supply pressure and a downward trend, and rubber having an oscillating operation [12]. Energy and Building Materials Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 777.5 with a daily increase of 0.19%. Spot prices of different types of iron ore changed slightly, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [45]. - Macro and Industry News: There was a meeting between Chinese and US leaders [45]. - Trend Intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [45]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Fundamentals: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3037 and 3256 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.22%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [48]. - Macro and Industry News: Steel production, inventory, and export data changed. The government issued policies to support the development of the commercial real estate industry and put forward requirements for the high - quality development of the steel industry [49][50]. - Trend Intensity: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [51]. Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - Fundamentals: The closing prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon futures contracts changed. Spot prices of related products also changed, and there were changes in basis, spreads between near - and far - month contracts, and spreads between different varieties [52]. - Macro and Industry News: There were price changes in raw materials such as coal and coke, and different steel mills had different procurement prices for ferroalloys [52][53]. - Trend Intensity: Silicon iron trend intensity is 0, and manganese silicon trend intensity is 0 [54]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures contracts increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [55]. - Macro and Industry News: There was a meeting between Chinese and US leaders [56]. - Trend Intensity: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [56]. Others Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts changed. There were also changes in trading volume, position, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium carbonate industrial chain. The inventory of the industry decreased [37][38]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and Chile's lithium carbonate export data changed [38][39]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: The closing prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts changed. There were changes in trading volume, position, basis, and prices of related products. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased [41]. - Macro and Industry News: A solar cell project's environmental impact report was publicized [41]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is - 2 [43].