新能源及有色金属日报：整体消费依然相对疲弱，铜价维持震荡格局-20251107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [7] - Option strategy: short put [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is mainly to buy hedging on dips, with the buying range recommended between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Selling hedging can be considered when the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Market: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,550 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,320 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Market: SMM's spot electrolytic copper was quoted between 85,660 and 86,330 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 30 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The market transaction briefly recovered, but overall it was still weak [2] - Important Information: The U.S. federal government shutdown led to the suspension of official inflation data release, causing concerns among some Fed officials about monetary policy. Some Fed officials are hesitant about further interest rate cuts due to high inflation and lack of data [3] Mining End - Kenadyr Metals Corp.'s Adelita copper - gold - silver project obtained all necessary permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration will start in November [4] - LundinMining's Q3 2025 production data showed copper output of 87,353 tons, gold output of 37,763 ounces, and nickel output of 2,724 tons. The company is promoting multiple growth plans to achieve its strategic goals [4] - The border between Zambia and Tanzania reopened, restoring the flow of copper - related goods on an important trade corridor [4] Smelting and Import - The U.S. Pumpkin Hollow restarted to strengthen supply - chain security, aiming to reduce the country's dependence on copper imports [5] - Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons but still plans to exceed last year's output. It aims to produce 1.7 million tons by 2030 [5] Consumption - Shandong Province's plan focuses on breaking through key technologies in high - performance copper alloys and other fields, and promoting the R & D and industrialization of high - end copper products [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 75 tons to 134,475 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,332 tons to 43,893 tons. On November 6, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 203,300 tons, a change of 3,200 tons from the previous week [6] Data Table - The table shows various copper - related data such as prices, premiums, inventories, and spreads from different time points including November 7, 2025, November 6, 2025, October 31, 2025, and October 8, 2025 [25]