资讯早班车-2025-11-07-20251107

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - In September 2025, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year [1] - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China conducts license reviews on rare earths and related items in accordance with laws and regulations, aiming to ensure the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains [2] - After the gold tax policy adjustment on November 1st, the Shenzhen Shuibei gold market has experienced "pricing chaos", with the gap between purchase and recycling prices widening significantly [2] - On November 6th, 32 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis [3] 2.2 Metals - On November 6th, international precious metal futures generally closed lower due to the Fed's stance on inflation and monetary policy [4] - Many institutions believe that a new cycle of resource commodities may have begun [5] - On November 6th, LME nickel cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 7,218 tons, the largest decline since May [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities have issued air pollution prevention and control action plans for the autumn and winter of 2025 - 2026, with some steel enterprises facing production restrictions [7] - The US has included copper in its 2025 list of critical minerals [7] - Indonesia has stopped approving applications for nickel ore processing plants producing certain intermediate products [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 6th, the main contract of US crude oil closed lower due to concerns about supply surplus and weak demand [8] - A new safety standard for chemical enterprises' flammable liquid atmospheric storage tank areas will be implemented on April 30, 2026 [8] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil selling prices to Asia for December [8] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Market regulatory authorities are soliciting public opinions on the "List of First - Time Non - Penalty for Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" and the "List of Non - Penalty for Minor Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" [10] - Malaysian enterprises will ensure the supply of raw materials for local sustainable aviation fuel plants [10] - Germany's grain corn production in 2025 is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 6th, the central bank conducted 928 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Important News - China aims to achieve the goals of Hainan Free Trade Port construction, expanding institutional opening - up and promoting the cross - border flow of production factors [13] - The Dutch government is responsible for the escalation of the global supply chain crisis regarding the Anshi Semiconductor issue [13] - Most multinational enterprises are confident in the Chinese market, with an increasing proportion optimistic about China's economic growth in the next 3 - 5 years [14] - A polysilicon industry consolidation may be on the way, with a planned fund of about 70 billion yuan [15] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to improve the central bank system and the "dual - pillar" regulatory framework of monetary and macro - prudential policies [16] - The US employment situation is severe, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [20] - The UK central bank maintained its interest rate at 4%, with increased internal divergence [20] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - A - share strength put pressure on the bond market, with bond yields generally rising and some bond prices falling [22] - Convertible bond indices showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and others falling [23] - US and European bond yields generally declined [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on November 6th, and the US dollar index fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities warns of potential risks in overseas AI development, especially during the transition period [28] - CITIC Securities expects the real estate market to stabilize in 2026, and some enterprises may see the bottom of the profit cycle [28] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that floating - rate bonds have advantages and the market may expand [29] - UBS Group analyzes the potential impact of a possible US Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policy [29] 4. Stock Market News - A - shares rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points, and the computing power hardware industry chain booming [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices rose, with some new stocks breaking their issue prices [32] - MSCI China Index added 26 stocks and removed 20 stocks in its November adjustment [32] - China Securities Index Company will release new indices on November 7th [33]