Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current situation and future trends [2][3][4] - Overall, the market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships, price trends, and influencing factors Summary by Category Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices oscillated. Saudi Aramco cut the official price premium of crude oil sold to Asia in December, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the fourth quarter is gradually materializing. Geopolitical factors have a limited impact on oil supply, and there is still a risk of price decline this year [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight fuel oil followed crude oil in a weak downward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continued to widen. The short - term cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened, but the continuous upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply pattern of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the price spread between the two is expected to expand further [22] - Asphalt: Northern construction is gradually coming to an end, while the south still has demand for rush - repair work. The fundamentals show multiple negative signals, and the market's bearish sentiment is deepening, with prices continuing to decline [23] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): The improvement in chemical profit has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion demand. However, with the weakening upward trend of international oil prices and the lack of strong support factors, the LPG main contract is expected to move in a volatile manner [24] Metals - Precious Metals: Some US economic data are still missing, and the government shutdown has brought uncertainty to the economy and Fed policy. The precious metals market is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [3] - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices were blocked at the MA20 moving average. The domestic copper market trading rhythm resonates with the stock market. There are differences in domestic social inventory statistics. It is advisable to wait and see, expecting the previous upward momentum to cool down [4] - Aluminum: Overnight Shanghai aluminum prices declined. The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased while that of aluminum rods increased. The market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance from fundamentals. It is in a short - term volatile and slightly upward trend, but it is not advisable to chase the rise [5] - Zinc: LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the de - stocking pace has slowed. The external market has limited upward momentum, but the spot resources overseas are still tight. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to decline. The cost support for Shanghai zinc in the fourth quarter has further strengthened, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [8] - Lead: LME lead inventory continued to decline, supporting the price above $2000. The domestic lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost still supports Shanghai lead. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the market trading was dull. Downstream demand is weak. The price support from the upstream is weakening, and Shanghai nickel is expected to run weakly with a downward - shifting center of gravity [10] - Tin: Overnight tin prices oscillated. The tin market is in a game between short - to - medium - term supply shortages and long - term stable upstream supply growth. It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend, and the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [11] - Alumina: The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The spot price decline has slowed down, but the discount transaction continues. Before large - scale production cuts occur, the price will run weakly with limited rebound space [7] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. It will continue to follow the aluminum price and is difficult to have an independent market [6] Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Carbonate lithium prices stabilized and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The supply and demand were both strong, and the total inventory decreased. The futures price strengthened, and it is expected to show a short - term strong and volatile trend [12] - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures rebounded significantly, and the market sentiment improved. The supply side has obvious contraction characteristics due to production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry season. The industry shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short - term disk will continue to oscillate [13] - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures price rebounded due to continuous price corrections and increased production - cut expectations. The short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern, and the actual production - cut intensity needs to be tracked [14] - Plastics and Related Products - PP, PE, and Propylene: The supply of propylene is generally abundant, and the downstream demand support is weak. The cost support for polyethylene has declined, and the downstream demand is average. The overall market performance is average [29] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC continues to accumulate inventory and runs at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is declining. Caustic soda oscillated slightly stronger, but the downstream demand is general, and it runs weakly [30] - PX and PTA: PX supply has recovered, while the overall load of PTA has decreased. The market is boosted by the news that PTA may increase production cuts. In the medium term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the raw material price increase transmission may be blocked [31] - Ethylene Glycol: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply is expected to grow, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The strategy of reverse arbitrage is recommended [32] - Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot pattern is good, but the raw material price increase may squeeze profits. The demand for bottle chips has weakened, and the processing margin is under pressure [33] Building Materials - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Night - session steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand and production of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined. The downstream demand is weak, and the demand expectation is still pessimistic. The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the short - term price may still fluctuate [15] - Iron Ore: Overnight iron ore futures prices oscillated weakly. The global shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The terminal demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke and coking coal prices oscillated upward during the day. There is an expectation of a third - round price increase for coke. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices [17][18] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Both prices oscillated strongly. The demand from molten iron production remains high. The price of manganese silicon is likely to oscillate upward, and ferrosilicon demand is generally good, with a similar price trend [19][20] - Glass: Glass prices oscillated. Some production lines in Shahe stopped production, and the inventory decreased. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The short - term downward space is limited [34] Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Night - session US soybean prices led to a decline in domestic prices. The import cost of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected that domestic soybean inventory will decrease in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips after the Sino - US trade eases [37] - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Overnight US soybean prices dropped sharply. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased. Attention should be paid to whether palm oil can stabilize at this stage [38] - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The supply - side positive factors for rapeseed meal still prevail, and the strategy of going long on rapeseed meal is maintained. The view on rapeseed oil has changed from bearish to wait - and - see, focusing on the marginal changes in imports [39] - Corn: Night - session Dalian corn futures continued to run strongly. The supply of new corn in the Northeast has increased at a slower pace, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. The import tax rate of US corn has changed, and attention should be paid to the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [41] - Livestock and Poultry Products - Pigs: The spot price of pigs is weakly stable, and the futures price is consolidating at a low level after a rebound. The later supply pressure is expected to increase, and the price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [42] - Eggs: The near - month futures contract of eggs hit a new high, and the far - month contract is mainly consolidating. The spot price is stable with a slight increase. It is advisable to wait for the opportunity to go short in the fourth quarter [43] - Cotton: US cotton prices declined. Brazilian cotton exports increased year - on - year. The new cotton cost provides some support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see for now [44] - Sugar: Overnight US sugar prices oscillated. The international sugar supply is relatively abundant, and the domestic market is focusing on the new - season production estimate [45] - Apples: Apple futures prices oscillated widely. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, but the quality is poor, and the selling sentiment is strong. A bearish strategy is recommended [46] - Wood and Pulp - Wood: The futures price is running weakly. The low inventory provides strong support, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [47] - Pulp: Pulp futures prices rose slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the demand is average. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [48] Financial Derivatives - Stock Index: A - shares rose with heavy volume yesterday, and futures contracts all rose. The short - term market will mainly oscillate and consolidate. It is advisable to focus on technology - growth stocks and appropriately allocate cyclical and consumer sectors [49] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures oscillated. The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs may have an impact on the US budget deficit. The domestic bond market is in a repair stage, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [50] Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Maersk announced a price increase for December freight rates, setting a reference benchmark. The 12 - contract valuation upper limit is emerging, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [21]
综合晨报-20251107
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-07 03:16