商品期货早班车-20251107

Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - Silver: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - Copper: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - Alumina: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - Zinc: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - Lead: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - Tin: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Iron Ore: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - Coking Coal: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - Corn: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - Sugar: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - Cotton: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - Eggs: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - Pigs: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - Apples: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - PVC: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - PTA: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - Glass: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - PP: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - Styrene: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - Soda Ash: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].