聚烯烃日报：PE下游开工下滑，需求偏弱持续拖累-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]