格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the adjustment of the vegetable oil sector was basically in place, and the liquidation of short - positions led to a stop in the decline and a stabilization of vegetable oils. The protein sector was running strongly at a high level due to cost - push and capital aggregation [1][2]. - For the vegetable oil sector, it showed a stable recovery. Aggressive investors could hold long - positions. Rapeseed oil was the strongest, followed by palm oil, and soybean oil was relatively weak. For the double - meal sector, the external market was weak, domestic spot traders were not willing to follow the price increase, and the market might experience a correction. Aggressive investors could try short - positions [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On November 6, the soybean oil main contract Y2601 closed at 8,188 yuan/ton, up 0.61% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,026 lots; the secondary main contract Y2605 closed at 8,006 yuan/ton, up 0.70% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4,532 lots. The palm oil main contract P2601 closed at 8,732 yuan/ton, up 1.65% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,776 lots; the secondary main contract P2605 closed at 8,798 yuan/ton, up 1.17% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 234 lots. The rapeseed oil main contract OI2601 closed at 9,564 yuan/ton, up 1.67% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,830 lots; the secondary main contract OI2605 closed at 9,173 yuan/ton, up 1.22% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 2,280 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On November 5, international crude oil futures fell more than 1%, closing at a two - week low. The NYMEX most - actively traded December crude oil futures contract fell 96 cents, or 1.59%, to settle at $59.60 per barrel [1]. - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 was expected to increase by 10% to about 56 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 53.63 million tons [1]. - The Brazilian government might not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, which might reduce the industrial demand for international soybean oil and have a certain drag on CBOT soybean oil [1]. - The shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October were 1,639,089 tons, a 5.2% increase from September. Exports to China were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in October 2025 was 2.07 million tons, a 12.31% increase month - on - month [1]. - As of the 44th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5728 million tons, a weekly decrease of 58,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.21%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.71% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of November 6, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 172 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the basis was - 192 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 152 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 419.2 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the basis was 373 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the US soybean futures price rose significantly again, driving a slight rebound in US soybean oil. The previous market speculation about inventory, exports, and production pressures had basically materialized, and Malaysian palm oil showed resistance to decline technically. Domestically, after reaching a new consensus between China and the US, China began to purchase US soybeans, narrowing the supply shortage gap in the first quarter of next year. The domestic oilseed supply in the fourth quarter was sufficient, the oil mill operating rate increased, and consumption entered a seasonal off - season. The overall domestic oil inventory increased, palm oil was still accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil price further declined [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The vegetable oil sector showed a stable recovery. Aggressive investors could hold long - positions. Rapeseed oil and palm oil were relatively strong, while soybean oil was relatively weak. The pressure level of the Y2601 contract was 9,000, and the support level was 8,000; the pressure level of the Y2605 contract was 8,400, and the support level was 7,840; the pressure level of the P2601 contract was 10,000, and the support level was 8,570; the pressure level of the P2605 contract was 10,000, and the support level was 8,580; the pressure level of the OI2601 contract was 12,000, and the support level was 9,299; the pressure level of the OI2605 contract was 12,000, and the support level was 9,000. No arbitrage strategies were provided [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On November 6, the soybean meal main contract M2601 closed at 3,068 yuan/ton, down 0.16% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 44,479 lots; the secondary main contract M2605 closed at 2,827 yuan/ton, up 0.11% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 13,829 lots. The rapeseed meal main contract RM2601 closed at 2,549 yuan/ton, up 0.47% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 34,202 lots; the secondary main contract RM2605 closed at 2,416 yuan/ton, up 0.46% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5,978 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the additional tariff measures on US - originated imported goods would be adjusted, and the 24% additional tariff rate on US goods would continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate would be retained [2]. - As of October 30, Brazilian soybean planting was 47% complete, higher than 36% a week ago but 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [2]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season might reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [2]. - After the recent meeting between China and Canada in South Korea, Canada could not immediately cancel tariffs on China, meaning that the export channels of Canadian rapeseed and its by - products to China remained closed [2]. - There were market rumors that COFCO had purchased 9 ships of Australian rapeseed for shipment between November and January [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory Status - As of the 44th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.733 million tons, a decrease of 179,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.208 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 14.77%; the contract volume was 4.662 million tons, a decrease of 177,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% [3]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of November 6, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,104 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 35,000 tons; the basis of soybean meal was 3,091 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 4,000 tons; the basis of the soybean meal main contract was - 8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,565 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 79 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons; the basis was 2,478 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 124 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 161 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2.5 Market Logic - Externally, as China had not clearly stated whether to purchase 1.2 million tons of US soybeans, the US soybean price was under pressure and declined. Domestically, the oil mill quotes increased with the market, but the near - month basis decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was dull. Feed enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and traders mostly chose to sell at a small profit. The domestic rapeseed raw material inventory dropped to zero, causing a sharp rise in the rapeseed meal market [3]. 3.2.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For the double - meal sector, the previous long - positions should be liquidated, and aggressive investors could try short - positions. The pressure level of the M2601 contract was 3,190, and the support level was 2,685; the pressure level of the M2605 contract was 3,000, and the support level was 2,549; the pressure level of the RM2601 contract was 2,620, and the support level was 2,280; the pressure level of the RM2605 contract was 2,500, and the support level was 2,270. No arbitrage strategies were provided [3].