化工日报：检修集中兑现，PTA大幅上涨-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] - Cross-variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5] - Inter-period: PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [5] Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the PX/PTA main contracts rose by 3.05% and 2.27% respectively. The current PTA spot market has abundant supply, with good long - term expectations but pressure in the near - term market, requiring comprehensive judgment [1] - In the cost side, the re - balancing of Russian oil trade is in the market observation period. The market focus is on the significantly increased maritime inventory. The structure of the increased inventory is crucial for the fourth - quarter oil price trend. PX's short - term floating price rebounds, but the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA's processing fees are compressed to a low level, with more near - term maintenance plans, but the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge after December [2] - The polyester operating rate is 91.7% (month - on - month increase of 0.3%). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly. The PF's short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fees are expected to be strong. The PR's spot processing fees are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Covers TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene US - Asia spreads (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Focuses on the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Includes filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rates, and filament profits [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Contains 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fees [71][81][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Covers polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fees, bottle chip export processing fees, bottle chip export profits, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [90][92][100]