新能源及有色金属日报：沪铝重心持续上移-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the nearby contract and short the distant contract [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas supply is affected by production cuts, while consumption is expected to enter the peak season. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may be opened if the inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The cost side has a slight downward space, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The current price valuation is low, and attention should be paid to potential emergencies [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remains unchanged at - 145 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,355 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of 280 yuan/ton. The highest price is 21,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 21,330 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 178,925 lots, and the open interest is 228,130 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 622,000 tons, a change of - 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 63,969 tons, a change of - 225 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 548,375 tons, a change of - 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 6, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,970 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 317 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2,770 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2,787 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price is 2,799 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 2,764 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 204,250 lots, and the open interest is 423,108 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 6, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 17,100 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,900 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas production cuts due to accidents, and the supply is not in surplus even with new and restarted capacity expectations. Consumption is expected to enter the peak season in November - December. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The price of alumina continues to decline. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the cost side has a slight downward space. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise [7][8].