铜市，维持短空长多思路

Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook on the copper market [1] Core View of the Report - Currently, LME copper is at a historical high. In the short term, there is a risk of price decline as the Fed's hawkish stance may increase the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions. In the long run, with the support of AI demand, the pricing logic of copper prices is expected to be reshaped, and its price center may move up [2][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price Trend - Since late September, Shanghai copper has shown a significant uptrend with increasing positions driven by loose macro - policy expectations and concerns about copper mine supply contraction. In mid - October, due to unstable external situations, the high - level volatility of copper prices intensified. In late October, as market risk appetite recovered, Shanghai copper prices resumed their upward trend and broke through this year's and the past 5 - year highs. By the end of October, the Fed's hawkish signals and the high LME copper price led to a phased pull - back in copper prices [4] Macro - policy Support - The Fed has started consecutive interest rate cuts, and global monetary policies have also shifted to an easing cycle, providing a favorable financial environment for copper prices. As the current global situation is in the first half of the interest - rate cut cycle, there may be significant upside potential for copper prices in the future. China's continuous macro - stability - enhancing policies and the "anti - involution" industrial policy for the copper smelting industry have provided strong bottom support for copper prices [5][6] Supply and Demand Situation - On the supply side, major copper mines around the world experienced significant production interruptions in the third quarter, leading to a significant downward revision of the global copper mine production growth forecast by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) in October. It is predicted that there will be a supply gap of about 15000 tons in the global copper mine market in 2026, which triggered this round of copper price increase. On the demand side, the most disruptive driving force comes from the revolutionary demand of AI computing infrastructure construction. Although the actual copper consumption in the AI field is still relatively limited and there are uncertainties from demand expectations to actual implementation, AI is driving copper to transform from a "traditional industrial metal" to a "strategic resource in the digital era", which is expected to reshape its long - term pricing logic [7][8]