Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall shock - upward pattern of the non - ferrous sector remains unchanged. After key events, the macro focus has shifted from macro narratives to real - world demand, causing an adjustment. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend again. [11] - In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic copper demand will enter a seasonal peak season, so the copper price center is expected to move up. [3][13] - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound trend. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. [14] - The aluminum industry chain presents a complex situation. Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, while alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. [14] - Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. [15] - Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. [15] - Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. [15][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: After key events, the macro focus has shifted to real - world demand, causing an adjustment in non - ferrous metals. With the dollar index stabilizing after a rebound, non - ferrous metals have shown a warming trend. There are different economic trends in the US, China, and the Eurozone. [11] - Non - ferrous Metals Strategy - Copper: In the short term, factors such as the strong dollar, high copper prices, and weak manufacturing data are negative for copper prices. In the long run, due to supply constraints and seasonal demand peaks, copper prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, with a support range of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton. [3][13] - Zinc: Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound. The supply growth of zinc ingots is gradually realized, and the demand in the peak season is still relatively weak. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [14] - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum shows a shock - strengthening trend, alumina is weak, and the peak - season driving force of related sub - sectors is gradually weakening. The recommended strategy is to be bullish on aluminum, short alumina on highs, and be bullish on the aluminum industry chain. [14] - Tin: Tin is in a state of range - bound shock. The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the demand in traditional consumer electronics and other fields remains weak. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or be slightly bullish, with a support range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton. [15] - Lead: Lead is in a state of shock - consolidation. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand for lead - acid batteries has declined. The recommended strategy is to sell both call and put options, with a support range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton. [15] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel and stainless steel are in a state of range - bound adjustment. The supply of nickel is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock situation. The recommended strategy is to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton for stainless steel, and a pressure range of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for nickel and 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton for stainless steel. [15][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Situation: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented, such as copper at 86,320 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and aluminum at 21,630 yuan/ton with a 1.10% increase. [16] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Position Analysis: The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, along with the influencing factors. [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Spot Prices: The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 85,990 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 22,510 yuan/ton with no change. [20] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are provided to show the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel in the industry chain. [22][24][27] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Relevant charts are provided to show the arbitrage - related data such as the ratio of domestic to foreign prices, basis, and price differences of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel. [46][48][51] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Relevant charts are provided to show the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of options for copper, zinc, and aluminum. [64][66][68]
有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251107
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-11-07 04:02