Guotou Securities·2025-11-07 04:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 12-month target price of 3.35 yuan, while the current stock price is 2.77 yuan [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a narrowing of non-recurring losses in Q3 2025, with operating cash flow improving quarter by quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 18.62%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.143 billion yuan [1][11]. - The revenue decline in Q3 2025 was 13.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of -1.243 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of -356 million yuan. The decline was attributed to weakened demand in the home retail market and a temporary drop in rental income [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s self-operated and leasing segments saw a revenue decline of 5.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while other segments collectively decreased by 5.6 billion yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.89%, an increase of 2.47 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q3 2025, it was 62.69%, up 6.07 percentage points [4]. Business Development - The company is accelerating its business model upgrade, with positive developments in new business areas such as appliances, automotive, home design, and lifestyle sectors, contributing to a stabilization in mall occupancy rates, which increased from 83.0% at the end of 2024 to 84.7% by the end of Q3 2025 [3]. - The company has expanded its smart appliance stores to over 150 locations across 115 core cities, and its automotive business has reached a total operating area of 260,000 square meters, covering 44 cities with over 30 partner brands [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6.915 billion yuan, 7.732 billion yuan, and 8.223 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.59%, 11.82%, and 6.34% [11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is -804 million yuan, with a projected PE ratio of -14.9X, and for 2026, the net profit is expected to be 125 million yuan with a PE ratio of 96.3X [11].