供应端压力递增，下游开工多下滑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market is facing increasing supply - side pressure and a general decline in downstream开工率. PE and PP spot prices are weakening, with supply increasing and demand remaining sluggish, and inventory pressure is still relatively large [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and the PP main 01 contract, and to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Spot market: Domestic PE market continued to be weak this week, with linear mainstream prices falling to 6780 - 7450 yuan/ton, high - pressure prices at 8750 - 9600 yuan/ton, and most low - pressure varieties falling. PP was also weak, with the average weekly price of East China拉丝 at about 6540 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of about 60 yuan, a decline of 0.9%. The foreign market also followed the downward trend [4]. - Supply: PE maintenance capacity was 6.318 million tons, with a loss of 100,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,100 tons. Next week, the planned maintenance loss will further drop to 80,800 tons, and new production capacity will continue to be released. PP开工负荷率 was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points. The parking loss this week was 158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons [4]. - Demand: PE downstream开工普遍 declined, with the开工 rates of agricultural film, packaging, monofilament, and pipes at 50%, 53%, 48%, and 34% respectively. PP downstream开工 showed a differentiated trend, with the开工 rates of plastic weaving and BOPP film slightly increasing, while those of injection molding and modification remained basically the same as last week [4][16]. - Inventory: PE petrochemical synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. PP two - oil synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.7%, but a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The de - stocking rhythm of the middle and upper reaches was slow, and some production enterprises had finished product overstocking [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: Hold short positions in the L main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the recent low of 6850 points; hold short positions in the PP main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the previous low of 6530 points [6]. - Arbitrage: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. - Options: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the given content 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - Price: The report presents data on PE futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, US dollar prices, import profits, and downstream profits [20][23][26]. - Inventory: It includes data on total PE inventory, oil - based PE inventory, coal - based PE inventory, trader PE inventory, port PE inventory, and PE warehouse receipts [51]. - New device commissioning: Multiple new PE devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 6.13 million tons [59]. - Production and sales: Data on PE monthly and weekly production,开工率, imports, and exports are provided [62][65][68][71]. - Downstream situation: Information on PE downstream开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [74][79]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - Price: The report provides data on PP futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, import and export prices, and profits [84][87][93]. - Inventory: It includes data on total PP inventory, two - oil PP inventory, coal - chemical enterprise PP inventory, trader PP inventory, port PP inventory, and PP warehouse receipts [106]. - New capacity situation: Multiple new PP devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 5.66 million tons [108]. - Production and sales: Data on PP monthly and weekly production,开工率, and imports and exports are provided [111][114][122]. - Downstream situation: Information on PP downstream product开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [125][128].