农产品日报：现货供应宽松，豆粕维持震荡-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the bean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the overall supply is ample, exerting pressure on prices. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and bean meal remain at relatively high levels. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be closely monitored. For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2549 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.47%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 2, a change of + 5 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 68, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 58, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 181, a change of - 2 from the previous day. - Market Information: On November 4th, the rural economic department of Paraná state reported that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season in Paraná state had reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition, 6% in medium condition, and 1% in poor condition [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The overall supply is ample, and there is pressure on the price upside. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also relatively loose. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be focused on [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2154 yuan/ton, an increase of + 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.94%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2469 yuan/ton, an increase of + 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 1, a change of - 30 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 81, a change of - 18 from the previous day. - Market Information: The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the grain output in Ukraine this year is expected to be 59 million tons, higher than last year's 56 million tons. The wheat and barley harvests are completed, with yields the same as last year. The wheat output is between 22 million and 22.5 million tons, and the barley output is 5.3 million tons. The Russian government plans to continue implementing the grain export quota system in 2026, with an expected scale of 20 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]