Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve with stable spot prices, southwest production cuts, and a decrease in social inventory. The industrial silicon valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [1][2] - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, but there is a large inventory pressure, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly. Short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4][6] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,050 yuan/ton and closed at 9,065 yuan/ton, up 1.17% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 236,855 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,281 lots, an increase of 86 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,700 - 8,900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The supply of petroleum coke tightened, and the demand provided effective support. SMM expected the short - term price to fluctuate strongly. The price of raw coal was good, supporting the cost of silicon coal, and there was a bullish expectation for the silicon coal price in some regions in the short term [1] - The consumption side: The reported price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a situation of rising in name but falling in fact. The mainstream transaction price was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 11,150 yuan/ton, an increase of about 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC prices of other domestic monomer enterprises also increased slightly [2] Polysilicon - On November 6, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,455 yuan/ton and closed at 53,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 122,244 lots (125,062 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 256,104 lots [3][4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 259,000 tons, a decrease of 0.77% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.52GW, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.45GW, a decrease of 5.55% month - on - month [4] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.32 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - The production of polysilicon in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region would be significantly reduced [4] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.30 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, production in the southwest is cut, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. The rising price of thermal coal and the expected strengthening of silicon coal prices support industrial silicon. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may rise [2] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon have slightly improved, but the overall inventory pressure is large, and downstream production may weaken. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. Currently, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [6] - For trading, short - term interval operations are recommended, with the 12 - contract expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [6]
新能源及有色金属日报：供需格局好转，工业硅社会库存小幅降低-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-07 05:02