五矿期货农产品早报-20251107

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, it is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improving profit margins stimulating purchases. In the medium - term, the outlook of ample global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It may reverse the current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to view it as range - bound with a downward bias until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and turn bullish if there are signs of production decline [5] - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [9] - For cotton, the fundamental situation is weak with poor demand and high domestic production this year. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] - For eggs, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. In the short - term, the market is expected to consolidate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading, and pay attention to the upper - level pressure in the medium - term [15][17] - For pigs, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and expectations of global bumper harvests. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with weak trading but good pick - up. The oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL estimated the domestic soybean crushing volume this week to be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] Strategy Views - Import costs are expected to move in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, squeezing profit margins, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support [3] Palm Oil Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% in October and 6.8% in the first five days of November. Domestic oils rebounded on Thursday following the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil prices are constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [4] Strategy Views - High production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation may reverse. The strategy is to be bearish until exports improve and turn bullish on signs of production decline [5] Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. Brazilian and Indian sugar production forecasts were released, with Brazilian sugar production expected to be higher and Indian net sugar production expected to be 30.95 million tons after deducting ethanol production [8] Strategy Views - Strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then short - sell [9] Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. Spinning mill operating rates remained flat week - on - week and were lower than in previous years. Xinjiang cotton purchase prices declined slightly [11] Strategy Views - Weak demand and high domestic production this year lead to a weak fundamental situation. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] Eggs Market Information - National egg prices were partly stable and partly rising. Supply was sufficient, and market demand was stable. Downstream traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased slightly [14] Strategy Views - Low replenishment and high culling have led to expectations of a peak - to - decline in inventory. With the improvement of sentiment, the market is expected to consolidate strongly in the short - term [15][17] Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices were mixed. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the slaughter volume decreased slightly. Southern prices may stop falling and stabilize [18] Strategy Views - Group farms have completed a high proportion of their plans, but the spot price increase was less than expected. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19]