尿素早评：情绪好转反转存疑-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the perspective of supply and demand. The current valuation of urea is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after reaching a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If the price continues to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self - clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are mainly making cautious low - price restocking. The possible future driving factors include the expectation of old - device renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - UR01 closed at 1644 yuan/ton on November 6, up 11 yuan (0.67%) from November 5; UR05 closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.70%); UR09 closed at 1750 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan (0.63%) [1]. Domestic Spot Price - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1]. Basis and Spread - The difference between Shandong spot and UR was - 147 yuan/ton on November 6, down 12 yuan from November 5; the spread between 01 and 05 was - 83 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream Cost - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively on November 6 compared to November 5 [1]. Downstream Price - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged on November 6 compared to November 5 [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1630 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1653 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1628 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1640 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 275142 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profit on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1].