化工日报：本周MEG华东主港延续累库-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The main port of MEG in East China continued to accumulate inventory this week. The EG main contract closed at 3,924 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China was 74 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and the domestic supply will be abundant in the future. Overseas, there are still many losses in ethylene glycol supply, and more than two sets of Saudi devices are still in shutdown or low-load operation, with little change in import expectations. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - The strategy includes cautious short selling hedging on a unilateral basis. There is a large pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter under high supply, with many production plans, and port inventories are expected to gradually recover. For the inter - term strategy, it is recommended to reverse the spread between EG2601 and EG2605 [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,924 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spot basis of EG in East China was 74 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 57 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was - 860 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread No relevant information provided. Downstream Production, Sales and Operation - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 562,000 tons, up 39,000 tons month - on - month. According to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main port of East China was 564,000 tons, up 65,000 tons month - on - month. As of November 6, the total inventory of MEG in the main port area of East China was 564,000 tons, an increase of 53,000 tons from Monday. The planned arrivals at the main port of East China this week are relatively large, and inventory accumulation is expected again [1].