贵金属日报：通胀数据缺失，美联储官员释放偏鹰信号-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, official inflation data is missing, causing some Fed officials to be concerned about the future monetary policy direction. Policy - makers should be more cautious in the case of data absence and reduced economic "visibility" [1] - The market's risk - aversion sentiment towards tariffs has subsided, which may slightly reduce the demand for gold investment. However, the increased volatility of risk assets may support the gold price in the short term. Gold is still a substitute for the U.S. dollar, so the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern. The silver price shares the same macro - logic as gold, with slightly stronger fluctuations and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, making some Fed officials worried about the follow - up monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is increasingly uneasy about further rate cuts due to the lack of key price data. Cleveland Fed President Hammack believes that high inflation is not conducive to further rate cuts and thinks current monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with inflation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 913.50 yuan/gram and closed at 917.80 yuan/gram, a 0.61% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 920.30 yuan/gram and closed at 915.24 yuan/gram, a 0.28% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,297.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,427.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 571,201 lots, and the open interest was 245,863 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,449 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,359 yuan/kilogram, a 0.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 6, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On November 6, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long positions changed by 70 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 856 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 323,905 lots, a - 30.13% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2512 contract, the long positions changed by 515 lots, and the short positions changed by 837 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,027,806 lots, a - 26.10% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,151 tons, a decrease of 17 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 6, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.60 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 993.90 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.32, a - 0.72% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.28, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 40,590 kilograms, a - 31.84% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 460,064 kilograms, a - 9.58% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be in an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2512 contract may oscillate between 900 yuan/gram and 930 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is also expected to be in an oscillating pattern, and the Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]