农产品日报：上下空间受限，板块延续震荡-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face limited upside due to hedging pressure and weak demand, but are optimistic in the long - term due to low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate until the end of the year and may hit new lows next year due to global supply surplus [4] - Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level as the fundamentals improve insufficiently, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: India's cotton initial inventory in the 2025.10 - 2026.9 season is expected to reach about 1.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 55%, and the import volume from October to December may be 340,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is uncertain. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export signing [2] - Domestic: The new cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply has been supplemented. The rising purchase price of seed cotton and the expected decline in production support the post - holiday market, but the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. There is a possibility of a callback in the short - term, and cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.13%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: As of November 4, 21 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India have started operations, and more are expected to start soon [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus has pushed prices below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined, the global sugar market may still be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar: The expected increase in domestic sugar production is strong, but the price is near the cost line, and the downward space is limited due to policy support [4] Strategy - Neutral. Oscillate until the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5368 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5060 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [4] - Market News: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a strengthening trend, with some prices up 10 - 70 yuan/ton [4] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact. Domestic imports have rebounded, and port inventories remain high [5] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand. Downstream paper mills purchase cautiously and do not stock up on a large scale [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pulp prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand [6]