FICC日报：关注中国10月进出口数据市场分析-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, and the domestic manufacturing PMI in October was 49, with production and new orders declining [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding inflation and employment risks, and the US government shutdown continues [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Market Analysis - The "15th Five - Year Plan" sets clear goals, and the expected average GDP growth rate during the period is around 5%, which boosts market sentiment [1] - The China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, including solutions to the TikTok issue, suspension of some US investigations and rules, and cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" [1] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, with a month - on - month value of - 0.8 and a difference of - 0.6 from the recent average. Production and new orders declined [1] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1st. The short - term funding shortage has not been significantly alleviated, and there is a 67.8% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 37th day, breaking the historical record. The 10 - month ISM manufacturing index dropped to 48.7%, and the "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 new jobs in October [1] Commodity Analysis - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The volatility of previously bullish sectors is high, and there are price fluctuation risks. Pay attention to potential breakthrough directions in non - ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation [2] - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The non - ferrous sector's long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations. The energy sector has a relatively loose medium - term supply [2] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term sharp fluctuations [2] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [3] Key News - The market strengthened with fluctuations throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points, and the ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon. Over 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.07 trillion [4] - The US government shutdown has reached 36 days, a record high. Trump expects the stock market to reach a new high and calls for an end to the "lengthy debate" rule to restart the government [4] - Fed Governor Milan believes that the ADP small non - farm employment report is better than expected, and the labor demand is not as strong as expected. He believes that the Fed's monetary policy is too restrictive and further interest rate cuts are reasonable [4] - Key conservative Supreme Court justices questioned the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the final ruling may shake Trump's signature economic policy [4]