Guoxin Securities·2025-11-07 05:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit continue to decline, but there is a slight recovery in new contract signing. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue (excluding financial business) of 773.8 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.49 billion yuan, down 15.0% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, the operating revenue was 262.7 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.66 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year. The total new contracts signed in the first three quarters reached 1,584.9 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with 476.2 billion yuan signed in the third quarter, up 6.0% year-on-year [8][9][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the third quarter of 2025 was 8.85%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the second quarter and 0.13 percentage points from the same period last year. However, the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 2.16%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points from the second quarter and down 0.13 percentage points year-on-year. The company's period expenses were 14.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year, with a period expense ratio down by 0.17 percentage points [2][9]. Asset Management - The company has been actively managing its assets, with accounts receivable and contract assets decreasing. In the third quarter of 2025, total assets increased by 23 billion yuan compared to the end of the second quarter, while total liabilities increased by 13 billion yuan. Accounts receivable and notes decreased by 1.5 billion yuan, and contract assets decreased by 800 million yuan [2][15]. Cash Flow - The company achieved a net inflow of operating cash flow of 6.7 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 8.6 billion yuan year-on-year. Investment cash inflow for the first three quarters was 24.5 billion yuan, up 12.4% year-on-year, exceeding the total for 2023 [3][16]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with net profits projected at 27.6 billion yuan, 29.2 billion yuan, and 31.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Earnings per share are expected to be 1.11 yuan, 1.18 yuan, and 1.28 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5.22, 4.93, and 4.50 [21][24].