碳酸锂日评：宽幅震荡-20251107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - On November 6, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The spot market remained weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. With the current balance between supply and demand, the news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is uncertain. Lithium carbonate production remains high, and high prices increase downstream wait - and - see sentiment. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to decline. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary Based on Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Prices: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on November 6 were 81,840 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, 83,400 yuan/ton, and 83,400 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases compared to previous periods [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on November 6 was 582,033 hands (+66,302), and the open interest was 471,983 hands (+18,723) [1]. - Spreads: The basis between SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price and the closing price of the active contract was - 3,400 yuan/ton on November 6, changing from premium to discount. The spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market Data - Lithium Ore and Lithium Compounds: The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton (-100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton (-100) on November 6 [1]. - Downstream Products: The production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and power batteries increased last week. In November, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide increased, while that of lithium manganate decreased. The production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles in October slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries in November increased [1]. Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26,420 tons (-410), and social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and others all decreased [1]. Industry News - Chile's Lithium Exports: In October, Chile's lithium export volume was 27,562 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 24,769 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China was 16,210 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40% [1]. - Kodal Minerals' Project: The first - phase project of the Bougouni lithium mine in southern Mali was officially launched on November 3. As of now, the cumulative output of lithium ore has exceeded 45,000 tons, with the target annual production capacity of the first phase being 125,000 tons [1]. - Australia's Prairie Lithium Project: Australia's Prairie Lithium has started the construction of the largest direct lithium extraction (DLE) plant in North America in Canada. The project has sufficient resources, with inferred and controlled resources equivalent to about 4 million tons of lithium carbonate [1].