Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, the decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,045 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,130 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,305 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 in the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks in China exceeded 900,000, reaching 916,000, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million after November [2] Global Natural Rubber - According to the ANRPC September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] China's Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same historical period, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] China's Rubber - Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber - tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In the first three quarters, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] EU Passenger - Car Market - In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 465 yuan/ton (-5), and the NR basis was 838.00 yuan/ton (-131.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+200), and the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+50). The price of STR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton (+10). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 4,180 yuan/ton (+200) [6] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.45), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (-1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+1.40) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [8] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (-3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the BR basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,503 yuan/ton (+52) [9] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [10] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12]
化工日报：下游轮胎开工率小幅回升-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-07 05:17