银河期货每日早盘观察-20251107

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to test new highs again, while the bond market for treasury bond futures may be volatile in the short term [17][21]. - Agricultural products show different trends, such as soybean meal with fading bullish factors and a falling price, and sugar with a weakening international market and a fluctuating - weak domestic market [24][27]. - In the black metal sector, steel prices are range - bound, coking coal and coke are in high - level oscillations, and iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset [57][59][62]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals are in range consolidation, copper prices are restricted by consumption, and aluminum prices are relatively strong due to supply concerns [68][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil prices are weakly volatile due to economic concerns, and asphalt prices are under pressure [16][30]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the market rose across the board, with major indexes and futures contracts gaining. The market sentiment was stimulated, and the stock index is expected to continue to rise. Trading strategies include not chasing high prices, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bullish spreads at low prices [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, most treasury bond futures contracts closed down. The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity affected the market. In the short term, the bond market may be volatile, and trading strategies include waiting and conducting 30Y - 7Y term spread short - selling arbitrage [22][23]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase. The domestic market has a loss in crushing profit, and the far - month price may face pressure. Trading strategies include short - selling in the far - month and using a short - straddle option strategy [25][26][27]. Sugar - The international sugar market is in a downward trend with increased production in major regions. The domestic market is affected by international prices and increased supply, but is also supported by import policies. Trading strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling international sugar and going long on Zhengzhou sugar [30][31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil decreased. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends. Short - term trading strategies include short - term long positions or waiting [33][34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - The CBOT corn futures price fell. The domestic corn inventory and consumption data are mixed. The price is expected to be range - bound, and trading strategies include short - term long and short positions at appropriate times [37][38]. Live Pigs - The pig price is generally stable or slightly rising. The overall supply pressure still exists. Trading strategies include short - selling and using a short - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut price is weak. The oil mill's purchase is suspended. The peanut is in a short - term bottom - oscillating phase. Trading strategies include short - term long positions and selling a PK601 - P - 7600 option [42][43][44]. Eggs - The egg price is rising. The inventory of laying hens is high, and the price increase space is limited. Trading strategies include closing short positions and waiting [46][48]. Apples - The apple inventory data shows a decrease compared to last year. The price is at a high level with large market divergence. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Trading strategies include waiting [55][56]. Black Metals Steel - The supply of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The steel price is range - bound, affected by production, inventory, and demand. Trading strategies include holding long positions and long - shorting the coil - rebar spread [58][59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal auction price increased, and the coke price rose for the third time. The supply may be restricted by safety supervision, and the short - term price is in high - level oscillations. Trading strategies include waiting and buying on dips in the medium term [60][61][62]. Iron Ore - The global iron ore supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be bearish. Trading strategies include short - selling [63][64]. Ferroalloys - The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are at a low - valuation level. The previous short positions can be reduced. Trading strategies include short - selling a virtual straddle option combination [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver fluctuated. The US economic and political factors have mixed effects on precious metals. The price is expected to be range - bound. Trading strategies include range - bound operations [68][70][71]. Copper - The copper price is affected by the US government shutdown and supply - demand factors. The supply is tight, and the consumption is insufficient. Trading strategies include waiting and conducting cash - and - carry arbitrage [72][73]. Alumina - The alumina price is in a bottom - oscillating phase. The supply is expected to decrease, but the actual reduction has not occurred. Trading strategies include waiting [75][77][78]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The aluminum price is relatively strong due to overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth. Trading strategies include going long on dips and long - shorting the SHFE - LME spread [79][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy is strongly oscillating with the aluminum price. It is supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Trading strategies include going long on dips [82][83]. Zinc - The zinc price is range - bound. The supply may decrease due to reduced processing fees and increased exports. Trading strategies include waiting [85][86]. Lead - The lead price may decline due to increased supply and decreased demand. Trading strategies include holding short positions [88][90][92]. Nickel - The nickel market has a loose supply - demand relationship, and the cost support may weaken. The price is in a weak oscillation. Trading strategies include short - selling a 2512 contract short - straddle combination [93][94][95]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market has weak supply - demand, and the production profit is difficult to achieve. Trading strategies include short - selling on rebounds [96]. Industrial Silicon - The demand for industrial silicon is weakening, and the supply may decrease due to power price increases. The price is range - bound. Trading strategies include buying on dips [98]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The crude oil price is weakly volatile due to concerns about the economic outlook [16]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is under pressure due to weak reality and expectations [30]. Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase [30]. PX & PTA - There are more maintenance operations, and the demand is acceptable [32]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply - demand relationship will become looser in the fourth quarter [33]. Short - Fiber - The demand support is limited, and the price follows the cost increase [33]. PR (Bottle Chip) - The demand is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [34]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The price is oscillating in the short term [35]. Propylene - The supply pressure remains, and the price is falling [36]. Plastic PP - PE&PP production increases year - on - year and month - on - month [37]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is weak [37]. PVC - The price is mainly oscillating [38]. Soda Ash - The cost is pushed up by coal prices [39]. Glass - Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns, the demand is weak [40]. Methanol - There is short - term weak support from gas restrictions [41]. Urea - The price rebounds due to news stimulation [42]. Pulp - The pulp price is in a stalemate, and the futures market is strongly oscillating [42]. Logs - The spot price is weakly oscillating [43]. Offset Printing Paper - The market is under pressure, and price increases are not well - implemented [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - The tire production increases month - on - month [45]. Butadiene Rubber - BD&BR production shows marginal reduction and month - on - month tire production increase [46].