生猪期货日报-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current hog market is under short - term pressure, with prices more likely to fall than rise. The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to increased group - farm slaughter, cooling secondary fattening, and insufficient consumption boost. It is expected that the price of the hog futures lh2601 contract will maintain a volatile and weak pattern [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 5, 2025, the hog lh2601 futures contract showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 11,945 points, up 1.57% from the previous day's settlement price. The total trading volume for the day was 136,100 lots, and the open interest was 136,400 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of hog futures contracts varied. The total open interest of the variety was 352,273 lots, a decrease of 10,117 lots compared to the previous trading day [4] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - The total trading volume of hog options for the day was 25,809 lots, and the total open interest was 67,555 lots, an increase of 1,879 lots in open interest, with a total of 41 lots exercised on the day [7] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's hog basis was 510 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's basis has significantly converged [8][9] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the Dalian Commodity Exchange's warehouse receipt report, today's registered warehouse receipts are 90 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - According to Mysteel Agricultural Products monitoring data, the planned hog slaughter volume of key provincial - level breeding enterprises in November is 13.9047 million heads, a 2.54% decrease compared to the actual slaughter volume in October. The planned slaughter volumes of enterprises in various regions showed more decreases than increases. Jiangsu had the most significant increase, with a month - on - month increase of over 7%, while Fujian had the most significant decrease, with a month - on - month decrease of over 11% [10] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily K - line of the hog lh2601 futures variety closed in a positive pattern. It briefly rose during the day, with the K - line near the middle track of the BOLL line, which is showing a narrowing state [11]