Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report offers a daily morning observation of the non - ferrous metals market, analyzing the market trends, important information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies of various non - ferrous metals such as precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold closed down 0.05% at $3977.17/ounce, London silver closed up 0.03% at $48.01/ounce. The US dollar index closed down 0.45% at 99.67, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.088%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 7.1188 [8]. - Important Information: Trump won't announce new tariffs during the Supreme Court's tariff case. The US House Speaker is less optimistic about resolving the government shutdown. The US included copper, silver, and potash in the 2025 critical minerals list. US private employment data shows a weak labor market. Fed officials have different views on December rate cuts [8][9]. - Logic Analysis: Multiple Fed officials are cautious about December rate cuts, pressuring precious metals. But risks like the government shutdown, tariff debates, and labor market risks support prices. So, precious metals are expected to continue adjusting [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: Use a band - trading approach for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. Copper - Market Review: The night - session of SHFE copper 2512 contract rose 0.33% to 85690 yuan/ton, and the LME copper closed down 0.43% at $10684/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [12]. - Important Information: The US included copper in the critical minerals list. The Fed's December rate - cut direction is unclear. Chinese copper inventories have been rising for 5 weeks. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia [12]. - Logic Analysis: The long - term US government shutdown causes liquidity concerns. Copper supply remains tight, but non - US supply pressure eases. High copper prices reduce demand, and domestic inventories increase [13]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold cross - market long positions and exit when the export window opens; wait and see for options [13][14]. Alumina - Market Review: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell 6 yuan to 2774 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed various changes [17]. - Important Information: Australia sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $320/ton FOB. National alumina inventories increased. Some projects in Guinea and China are in progress [17][18][19]. - Logic Analysis: Alumina supply still exceeds demand. Although there are expectations of production cuts, actual cuts haven't happened, and imports and new projects put pressure on prices [19]. - Trading Strategy: Expect narrow - range bottom - grinding for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The SHFE aluminum 2512 contract rose 280 yuan to 21630 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [23]. - Important Information: US companies' October lay - offs reached a 20 - year high. US ADP employment in October increased. Chinese aluminum ingot inventories decreased. A US aluminum smelter cut production [23][24]. - Logic Analysis: US economic data improved the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut. The supply - demand of aluminum remains tight, with overseas supply concerns and domestic consumption growth [24]. - Trading Strategy: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; consider going long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage; wait and see for options [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract remained flat at 20910 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were stable [25][26]. - Important Information: Similar to electrolytic aluminum, including US lay - offs, ADP employment data, and TGA balance changes. The industry's theoretical profit increased [26][27]. - Logic Analysis: US economic data eased market concerns. Supply shortages and rising raw material costs support prices, and demand is improving [27]. - Trading Strategy: Expect an upward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc fell 0.11% to $3051/ton, and the SHFE zinc 2512 rose 0.15% to 22630 yuan/ton. Shanghai zinc inventories decreased [29]. - Important Information: SMM seven - region zinc inventories decreased [31]. - Logic Analysis: The mining end is tight, and processing fees are falling, leading to potential production cuts. The export window is open, but new production and export volume are uncertain [31]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold the strategy of buying SHFE zinc and selling LME zinc for arbitrage; wait and see for options [31]. Lead - Market Review: The LME lead rose 0.84% to $2036.5/ton, and the SHFE lead 2512 fell 0.23% to 17405 yuan/ton. Spot prices fell, and downstream buying improved [33]. - Important Information: SMM five - region lead inventories increased [33]. - Logic Analysis: Some lead - storage enterprises cut production due to high prices and high dealer inventories. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [33]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Nickel - Market Review: The LME nickel rose to $15055/ton, and the inventory decreased to 253104 tons [36]. - Important Information: Indonesia restricted new smelting licenses and cracked down on illegal nickel mining [36]. - Logic Analysis: LME nickel inventories remain high, indicating loose supply - demand. Cost support may weaken in December, and nickel prices will fluctuate weakly [36]. - Trading Strategy: Expect a downward - biased trend for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle option for the 2512 contract [37][39]. Stainless Steel - Important Information: A South Korean stainless - steel factory suspended operations due to a gas leak. National stainless - steel inventories increased slightly [40]. - Logic Analysis: Terminal demand is weak, and the supply of cold - rolled products is sufficient. Cost support is weak, and the price trend is downward [40]. - Trading Strategy: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [41]. Industrial Silicon - Important Information: An industrial silicon project in Angola was completed [42]. - Logic Analysis: In November, demand for industrial silicon decreased, and some factories stopped production. Supply - demand is basically balanced, and prices will fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [42][44]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips for single - side trading; conduct a long - spread strategy for Si2512 and Si2601 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [44]. Polysilicon - Important Information: The National Energy Administration issued a guidance on coal - new energy integration [45]. - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon supply and demand both decreased, with supply decreasing more. Without new positive news, the price is weak in the short term [45]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for a full correction for single - side trading; conduct a reverse - spread strategy for far - month contracts; no option strategy [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Important Information: A mining right in Jiangxi was under public notice. Chile's lithium carbonate exports increased in October [46][48]. - Logic Analysis: This week's production increased, and inventory decreased. But lithium concentrate arrivals and potential production resumptions will pressure prices in the future [48]. - Trading Strategy: Sell on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. Tin - Market Review: The SHFE tin 2512 rose 0.11% to 283100 yuan/ton, and LME tin inventories increased [50]. - Important Information: Fed officials have different views on rate cuts. Yunnan over - achieved its tin exploration target. A company's tin production decreased. An electronics company's export situation changed [50][52]. - Logic Analysis: Fed officials' rate - cut views differ. Tin mining supply is tight, and production recovery may be delayed. Demand recovers slowly [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect high - level fluctuations for single - side trading; wait and see for options [53].
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Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-07 05:56