国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251107

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product. It assesses the market conditions of each commodity and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Aromatics and Related Products - PX: Supported by overseas aromatics blending demand, it shows a relatively strong short - term trend. The domestic production device's operating rate has reached a new high, but sanctions on some companies may affect short - process device operations. It is in a high - level oscillating market [13]. - PTA: The market focuses on supply reduction due to industry consolidation. The polyester load is high, and the short - term operating rate has decreased, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November. However, the long - term inventory accumulation pattern is clear. PTA processing fees above 300 should be sold short [14]. - MEG: Supply pressure is large, and port inventory accumulation will accelerate. Although the polyester load is high, it cannot change the current oversupply situation. The price needs to test the cost line of coal - based devices [15]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is in an oscillating state. Domestic supply is shrinking, while foreign supply is in the peak season. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, making it difficult for prices to break through unilaterally [16]. - Synthetic Rubber: Spot trading has improved, and it has entered an oscillating phase. In the short - term, the decline speed has slowed down due to inventory reduction and improved spot trading. In the medium - term, the weak operation of butadiene drives the downward shift of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber [21]. Asphalt - It is in a weak operation. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased, and the shipment volume has also declined. The market is affected by factors such as supply reduction in the north and decreased demand in the north as the construction season ends [25]. Polyolefins - LLDPE: The planned - out maintenance has increased. Although the raw material price has decreased, the downstream demand provides support, and the short - term decline driving force is not strong. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand [36]. - PP: It has a weak trend. Although there has been a short - term rebound due to factors such as changes in oil prices and supply reduction, in the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the medium - term market may be in a weak - oscillating pattern [40]. Other Chemical Products - Caustic Soda: Supported by cost, but there is still pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side is affected by factors such as the possible reduction in alumina production. Attention should be paid to supply changes under the background of low chlorine profit [44]. - Pulp: It is in an oscillating state. Although the futures market provides some support, high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand limit the price rebound space [49]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price has little change, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment [56]. - Methanol: It is in a short - term oscillating operation. Supply is high, and demand from the MTO industry is under pressure. The macro - driving force has weakened, and the market is weak. Attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the mainland can support prices [59]. - Urea: It is expected to operate strongly in the short - term. The spot market has active transactions, and new export quotas have been obtained, providing policy support [63]. - Styrene: It is in a short - term oscillating state. The contradiction is not significant, and pure benzene has low absolute valuation. Although the chemical fundamentals are weak, the blending oil price difference has opened up, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand [68]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply has slightly increased, and downstream demand remains stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily in the short - term [71]. - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high [73]. - Propylene: Upstream devices are in a loss state, and attention should be paid to production reduction operations [74]. - PVC: It still has pressure in the trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down. However, supply reduction in the maintenance season next year can be expected [82]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil fell at night and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market slightly decreased [85]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is in an oscillating market. The freight index shows different trends in European and US - West routes [87].